Most fish recruitment models consider only one or a few drivers in isolation, rarely include species’ traits, and have limited relevance to riverine environments. Despite their diversity, riverine fishes share sufficient characteristics that prediction of recruitment should be possible. Here we synthesize the essential components of fish recruitment hypotheses and the key features of rivers to develop a model that predicts relative recruitment strength, for all fishes, in rivers under all flow conditions. The model proposes that interactions between flow and physical complexity will create locations in rivers, at mesoscales, where energy and nutrients are enriched. The resultant production of small prey will be concentrated and prey and fish larvae located (through dispersal or retention) so that the larvae can feed, grow, and recruit. Our synthesis explains how flow and physical complexity affect fish recruitment and provides a conceptual basis to better conserve and manage riverine fishes globally.

Environmental flows are now an important restoration technique in flow-degraded rivers, and with the increasing public scrutiny of their effectiveness and value, the importance of undertaking scientifically robust monitoring is now even more critical. Many existing environmental flow monitoring programs have poorly defined objectives, nonjustified indicator choices, weak experimental designs, poor statistical strength, and often focus on outcomes from a single event. These negative attributes make them difficult to learn from. We provide practical recommendations that aim to improve the performance, scientific robustness, and defensibility of environmental flow monitoring programs. We draw on the literature and knowledge gained from working with stakeholders and managers to design, implement, and monitor a range of environmental flow types. We recommend that (1) environmental flow monitoring programs should be implemented within an adaptive management framework; (2) objectives of environmental flow programs should be well defined, attainable, and based on an agreed conceptual understanding of the system; (3) program and intervention targets should be attainable, measurable, and inform program objectives; (4) intervention monitoring programs should improve our understanding of flow-ecological responses and related conceptual models; (5) indicator selection should be based on conceptual models, objectives, and prioritization approaches; (6) appropriate monitoring designs and statistical tools should be used to measure and determine ecological response; (7) responses should be measured within timeframes that are relevant to the indicator(s); (8) watering events should be treated as replicates of a larger experiment; (9) environmental flow outcomes should be reported using a standard suite of metadata. Incorporating these attributes into future monitoring programs should ensure their outcomes are transferable and measured with high scientific credibility.

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Summary1. One of the greatest threats to lotic ecosystems is flow regulation. The impacts of flow regulation on native fish are often mitigated using periodic water allocations, termed environmental flows. The effectiveness of environmental flows has been studied in some systems, but the role of flow conditions prior to water allocation (i.e. antecedent conditions) has rarely been quantified. 2. We evaluated the effects of floodplain inundation due to variable river flows on fish abundance in wetlands of the mid-Murray River, Australia, using a hierarchical multi-species model parameterized to estimate fish abundance while accounting for variable detection. We evaluated the effects of antecedent conditions on three time-scales, including patterns in long-term (5 years prior), medium-term (1 year prior) and short-term (3 months prior) wetland inundations. 3. While species-specific responses to antecedent conditions varied, we found a general divergence in the responses of native and non-native species. Native fish tended to respond positively to consistent frequent inundation of wetlands, while non-native fish tended to respond positively to long-or medium-term dry periods and short-term wet periods. 4. Fish detection probability varied among species, sampling gears, wetland areas and wetlands, indicating that accounting for variable detection can be critical when evaluating patterns in fish abundance. 5. Synthesis and applications. We found that antecedent conditions can be important for determining environmental water allocation policies. Our results indicated that native fish generally responded positively to frequent inundation of wetlands, while non-native species generally responded positively to long dry periods followed by short-term inundation events. For some non-native species, long dry periods not only generated a positive response in abundance, but enhanced the positive response to short-term inundation events. The divergence between native and non-native fishes' responses to antecedent conditions provides opportunities for managers to allocate water to favour native fish assemblages. Future research of environmental flows for managing fish assemblages should consider antecedent conditions and apply models that account for incomplete detection, such as the one developed here, to better inform the management process.