Short-term gain in BMI following ART initiation appeared to increase the longer term risk of CVD, but only in those with pre-ART BMI in the normal range. It was also associated with increased risk of diabetes regardless of pre-ART BMI.

Risk of CVD, a range of cancers, and all-cause mortality increased at low BMI (<18.5) and then tended to increase only at BMI > 30 with a relatively low risk at BMI of 23-25 and 25-30. High BMI was also associated with risk of diabetes.

Objective To investigate the relative predictive value of CD4+ metrics for serious clinical endpoints. Design Observational Methods Patients (3012; 20317 person-years) from control arms of ESPRIT and SILCAAT trials were followed prospectively. We used Cox regression to identify CD4+ metrics (latest, baseline and nadir CD4+count, latest CD4+%, time spent with CD4+count below certain thresholds and CD4+ slopes) independently predictive of i)all-cause mortality; ii) non-AIDS deaths; iii) non-AIDS (cardiovascular, hepatic, renal and non-AIDS malignancy) and iv) AIDS events. Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) was calculated for each model. Significant metrics (p<0.05) were then additionally adjusted for latest CD4+ count. Results Non-AIDS deaths occurred at a higher rate than AIDS deaths (rate-ratio: 6.48, 95%CI: 5.1–8.1) and similarly, non-AIDS events (rate-ratio: 1.72, 95%CI: 1.65–1.79). Latest CD4+count was strongly predictive of lower risk of death (HR per log2 rise: 0.48, 95%CI: 0.43–0.54), with lowest AIC of all metrics. CD4+ slope over 7-visits, after additional adjustment for latest CD4+count, was the only metric to be independent predictor for all-cause (HR for slope<-10/mm3/month vs. 0±10: 3.04, 95%CI: 1.98–4.67) and non-AIDS deaths (HR for slope <-10/mm3/month vs. 0±10: 2.62, 95%CI: 1.62–4.22). Latest CD4+ count (per log2 rise) was the best predictor across all endpoints (i–iv) and predicted hepatic (HR: 0.46, 95%CI: 0.33–0.63) and renal events (HR: 0.39, 95%CI: 0.21–0.70), but not cardiovascular events (HR: 1.05, 95%CI: 0.77–1.43) or non-AIDS cancers (HR: 0.78, 95%CI: 0.59–1.03). Conclusion Latest CD4+count is the best predictor of serious endpoints. CD4+ slope independently predicts all-cause and non-AIDS deaths.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has emerged as an important health concern in HIV-positive individuals. Preventing long-term kidney toxicity from an antiretroviral therapy is therefore critical. Selected antiretroviral agents, especially tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and some ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors (PI/rs), have been associated with increased risk of CKD. However, the CKD risk attributable to these agents is overall small, especially in those with low baseline risk of CKD and normal renal function. CKD risk in HIV-positive individuals can be further minimized by timely identification of those with worsening renal function and discontinuation of potentially nephrotoxic agents. Clinicians can use several monitoring tools, including the D:A:D risk score and routine measurements of estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) and proteinuria, to identify high-risk individuals who may require an intervention. Tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), a TDF alternative, promises to be safer in terms of TDF-associated kidney and bone toxicity. While the short-term data on TAF does indicate lower eGFR decline and lower risk of proteinuria (vs. TDF), long-term data on renal safety of TAF are still awaited. Promising results have also emerged from recent trials on alternative dual-therapy antiretroviral regimens which exclude the nucleoside(tide) reverse transcriptase class as well as possibly the PI/rs, thereby reducing the drug burden, and possibly the toxicity. However, long-term safety or benefits of these dual-therapy regimens are still unclear and will need to be studied in future prospective studies. Finally, addressing risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes will continue to be important in this population.