Mass public quarantining, colloquially known as a lock-down, is a non-pharmaceutical intervention to check spread of disease. This paper presents ESOP (Epidemiologically and Socioeconomically Optimal Policies), a novel application of active machine learning techniques using Bayesian optimization, that interacts with an epidemiological model to arrive at lock-down schedules that optimally balance public health benefits and socioeconomic downsides of reduced economic activity during lock-down periods. The utility of ESOP is demonstrated using case studies with VIPER (Virus-Individual-Policy-EnviRonment), a stochastic agent-based simulator that this paper also proposes. However, ESOP is flexible enough to interact with arbitrary epidemiological simulators in a black-box manner, and produce schedules that involve multiple phases of lock-downs. Keywords Optimal policy • Lock-down • Epidemiology • Bayesian optimization Disclaimer This paper makes no recommendation to individuals and its results should not be interpreted by individuals to modulate personal behavior. The authors recommend that individuals continue to follow guidelines offered by local governments with respect to lock-downs and social distancing, and those offered by medical professionals with respect to personal hygiene and treatment.
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