Growing fiscal deficit and public debt has been a cause of concern for the government, economists and the policymakers of India since long. Various studies have tried to test the sustainability issue of India’s fiscal policies applying various methodologies time to time. However, the results obtained are ambiguous. Such ambiguity might emerge because of the various methodologies adopted for the respective studies. In view of this, the current study attempts to revisit the sustainability issue of India’s fiscal deficit using up-to-date time series methodologies on the annual data sets ranging from the time period 1981 to 2019. Apart from this, the study also tries to verify the results using a model based on fiscal reaction function (FRF) developed by Henning Bohn. The study found the fiscal deficit of India to be sustainable. JEL Classification: H61, H62, H63, H68
Trade in services has made phenomenal strides in the globalisation era with the advent of a technology revolution, fragmentation in production processes and rapid digitisation. The case of India has been exemplary, as she bypasses her sluggish growth in goods exports to emerge as a world leader in commercial services. By churning out positive net exports since 2003, this trade sector has considerably eased the country’s unfavourable current-account position. Further, the relatively robust performance of the country’s service exports in the face of the Great Recession of 2008–2009 has ignited speculations over its suitability as an instrument of sustainable economic growth. Though the stupendous growth of India’s export of services is well documented, not much has been said regarding consistency in this growth. Our study identifies that against the backdrop of key macroeconomic developments, the growth performance of the country’s real export of services has undergone vivid variations. The long-term trend of these exports, though increasing, is choppy. We identify three structural regimes in the course of these exports: 1975–1993, 1994–2004 and 2005–2018. We conscientiously deduce that the phenomenal growth of real service exports that accrued in the 1990s has been slowly wearing out post 2005. The slowdown has both cyclical and structural elements to it and corresponds to the changing cyclicality of service exports, subduing demand, slowing global value chains (GVCs) and post-crisis mood of protectionism. JEL Codes: F14, C32, E32
Policy approach to rural development in independent India has evolved through various stages. Limited success of different initiatives prompted setting up of Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRIs) as statutory local self-governing bodies for securing faster rural development through greater grassroots empowerment. After a couple of decades of the 73rd Constitution Amendments that instituted the PRIs, it was felt necessary to ask whether PRIs had succeeded in percolating power to the grassroots, and if so, whether such empowerment expedited the pace of development in villages. In pursuit of this composite question, a field investigation was carried out in six carefully selected villages in Assam in 2012. Development attainments and improvements in such attainments have been found to be higher in the villages where institutions of grassroots empowerment have taken deeper roots. The study makes a case for deepening of the grassroots empowerment process for expeditious overcoming of the backlogs in rural development.
Twin deficits have appeared as the indispensible reality of the Indian economy since long. The study is an attempt to trace out the inherent dynamics of India’s twin deficits problem, particularly to unveil its transmission mechanism. Applying annual secondary data for the period 1971 to 2019, the endeavour reveals India’s twin deficits encounter to follow the path prescribed by the Mundell- Fleming open economy IS-LM model. However, India’s realization is found to differ slightly from the standard theoretical manifestation. In India, domestic exchange rate is found to appreciate followed by the expansionary fiscal policies of the government. The improved exchange rate, owing to the sterilization policies of the monetary authority to uphold the country’s trade competitiveness, is observed to augment India’s domestic interest rate. Again, the increased interest rate, due to its positive effect on the financial inflows, is found to deteriorate India’s external balance. JEL Classification: H6, F32, F31, F21, E43
India and Africa are two regions embarking on a compatible growth trajectory, offering immense potential for mutual exchange and trade complementarities. In the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, efforts were on their way toward acknowledging the shared social, economic and demographic commonalities between the regions, and toward strengthening of strategic, economic and trade ties. Subsequent waves of the pandemic have definitely affected production, cross-border trade and mobility of factors and finances across the two regions, thereby, stalling growth and developmental benefits that could have emanated from complementary exchanges. Though nothing can be said for sure, at present, about the prospects of Indo-African trade in the post-pandemic global arena, untapped energy potentials and newer avenues of exchanges, as in the field of medicines, can be seen as holding prominence.
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