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Background Academic performance factors, such as school-leaving grades and other academic indicators for selection, play a significant role in student success. The study aimed to determine the best predictors of academic success in the first year of study for nursing studies at a South African university using three National Benchmark Test (NBT) domains and four National Senior Certificate (NSC) subjects. Methods We conducted a retrospective review of the admission data of first-time students (n = 317), enrolled on the Bachelor of Nursing between 2012 and 2018. Hierarchical regression was used to explore important variables predicting success in the first year of study. Cross tabulations were used to determine the association between progression outcome, proficiency levels of the NBT and school quintiles. Results All predicting variables explained 35% of the variance in the first year of the study. The NBT MAT (Mathematics), Academic literacy (AL), and NSC’s Life Sciences were statistically significant predictors for passing the first year. Analysis of progression outcomes by the NBT proficiency levels suggests that most students begin studies with lower entry-level skills than required, which hinders academic progress. No major differences in academic performance were observed for the students who attended different quintiles. Conclusion Selection test results predict areas where students are likely to encounter difficulties and inform the interventions needed to achieve academic success. There may be serious implications for students admitted with low entry-level skills in variables predicting academic success and they would need tailored academic interventions to improve their grasp of mathematical and biological concepts and their ability to read, think and reason.

Background Academic performance factors such as school-leaving grades and other academic indicators for selection, play a significant role in student success. Purpose The study aimed to determine the predictors of academic success based on selection criteria for nursing studies at a South African university. Methods This retrospective study involves seven cohorts of first-time nursing students (n = 317). Hierarchical regression was used to explore important variables predicting success in the first year of study. The Chi-square tests were used to determine the association between progression outcome, NBT domains, and school quintiles. Results All predicting variables explained 35% of the variance in the first year of study. Most students’ entry-level skills according to the National Benchmark Test (NBT) were at Intermediate Lower level; the NBT MAT (Mathematics) and NBT AL (Academic Literacy) domains, and the National Senior Certificate (NSC) subject, Life Sciences are significant predictors of students passing the first year. Conclusion Selection test results predict areas where students are likely to encounter difficulties and inform the interventions needed to achieve academic success.

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