Introduction Syphilis is a sexually transmitted disease (STD) caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. In 2016, it was declared an epidemic in Brazil due to its high morbidity and mortality rates, mainly in cases of maternal syphilis (MS) and congenital syphilis (CS) with unfavorable outcomes. This paper aimed to mathematically describe the relationship between MS and CS cases reported in Brazil over the interval from 2010 to 2020, considering the likelihood of diagnosis and effective and timely maternal treatment during prenatal care, thus supporting the decision-making and coordination of syphilis response efforts. Methods The model used in this paper was based on stochastic Petri net (SPN) theory. Three different regressions, including linear, polynomial, and logistic regression, were used to obtain the weights of an SPN model. To validate the model, we ran 100 independent simulations for each probability of an untreated MS case leading to CS case (PUMLC) and performed a statistical t-test to reinforce the results reported herein. Results According to our analysis, the model for predicting congenital syphilis cases consistently achieved an average accuracy of 93% or more for all tested probabilities of an untreated MS case leading to CS case. Conclusions The SPN approach proved to be suitable for explaining the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) dataset using the range of 75–95% for the probability of an untreated MS case leading to a CS case (PUMLC). In addition, the model’s predictive power can help plan actions to fight against the disease.

(1) Background: Maternal syphilis (MS) and congenital syphilis (CS) are serious public health problems worldwide due to their high morbidity and mortality rates. (2) Objective: Evaluating the applicability of Clinical Protocols and Treatment Guidelines on case incidence trends in Brazil and Portugal. (3) Methods: The review was done through bibliographic research in two public databases and government websites from both countries, published between 2007 and 2022. All guidelines that contained CS and MS were selected. (4) Results and discussion: After evaluation, we found that Brazil and Portugal have adequate protocols for screening and treating congenital and maternal syphilis. (5) Conclusion: The results suggest that CS and MS incidence are notably higher in Brazil than in Portugal due to economic, cultural, and social disparities and the differences in territory size. Therefore, these demographic and socioeconomic factors could strongly influence efforts to fight against syphilis and thus control the infection.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged, vaccination has been the core strategy to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on hospitalizations and deaths in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. We analyzed data from 23,516 hospitalized COVID-19 patients diagnosed between April 2020 and August 2021. We excluded the data from patients hospitalized through direct occupancy, unknown outcomes, and unconfirmed COVID-19 cases, resulting in data from 12,635 patients cross-referenced with the immunization status during hospitalization. Our results indicated that administering at least one dose of the immunizers was sufficient to significantly reduce the occurrence of moderate and severe COVID-19 cases among patients under 59 years. Considering the partially or fully immunized patients, the mean age is similar between the analyzed groups, despite the occurrence of comorbidities and higher than that observed among not immunized patients. Thus, immunized patients present lower Unified Score for Prioritization (USP) levels when diagnosed with COVID-19. Our data suggest that COVID-19 vaccination significantly reduced the hospitalization and death of elderly patients (60+ years) after administration of at least one dose. Comorbidities do not change the mean age of moderate/severe COVID-19 cases and the days required for the hospitalization of these patients.

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