This article makes a comparative analysis of the trajectories of welfare change in Italy and Spain since the outbreak of the financial crisis. We look at the differences in the types of institutional design to study of welfare reform in these two countries and assess how recent changes have affected welfare state institutions. The article also assesses the level of EU involvement not only through formal instruments around the European Semester, but also by means of agreements with the Troika and the European Central Bank. For this part of the analysis three sets of documents have been used: Commission Recommendations and Council Decisions in relation to Excessive Deficit Procedures; Commission country-specific recommendations based on Stability or Convergence Programmes; and Policy Measures to boost growth and jobs (National Reform Programmes). These documents allow an analysis of the contents of formal adjustment pressures. Other documents and sources (including newspaper articles) have also been analysed in order to look at the role of conditionality and 'backroom' diplomacy.

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Recent research has shown that the traditional view of social welfare in Southern Europe as 'rudimentary' is a misreading of its distinct nature: welfare arrangements in the region do not 'lag behind' as a whole, rather they suffer from serious imbalances that cause inequities and inefficiencies. The article focuses on Greece and Spain, two countries that differ in terms of economic performance and size, but share a recent history of successful transition to democracy and common membership of the Southern European 'model' of welfare. The article shows that the welfare policies pursued in these two countries over the last 20 years were marked by strong expansionary trends that clearly outbalanced occasional cut-backs. This evidence lends no support to the 'social dumping' hypothesis. If anything, 'catching up with Europe' in terms of social as well as economic standards seems to have been elevated to something of a national ideal, shared by both government and opposition. As the expansionary thrust of 'welfare state building' is being exhausted, the biggest challenge facing Southern European welfare states is the construction of welfare institutions in tune with a changing society.

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