This contribution attempts to provide theoretical propositions and empirical evidence on the 'obscure' relationship between current account imbalances and house prices. We propose a theoretical framework, which studies the interaction between house prices and current account imbalances and also pays special attention to the role played by fiscal and monetary policies. In a second stage of this contribution, our theoretical framework is estimated empirically by using data from 17 OECD economies, which spans the period 1970-2013. In doing so, the least squares technique with breakpoints is employed.1 Also, Renaud (1995) considers that the synchronized housing cycle, which took place during the period 1985-1994 in some OECD countries, was due to financial liberalization. Otrok and Terrones (2005) consider, as explanatory variables of these common movements, interest rates and economic activity. 2 The sign below a variable indicates the partial derivative of the demand for housing with respect to that variable. 3 Punzi (2013) points to a negative correlation between current account and housing variables. Utilizing a two-country DSGE model, Punzi (op. cit.) argues that the 'wealth' effect, which emanates from rising house prices, boosts domestic consumption, in view of getting into debt becoming easier, thereby contributing to a current account deficit. Aizenman and Jinjarak (2009) also identify a negative correlation between real estate prices and current account.
HOUSE PRICES AND CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES
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Summary
The presence of African Swine Fever (ASF) and its impacts on the global pig meat market has been gaining increased attention in recent times. Although more than 2,400 ASF events have been observed across the world since 2016, none of them have had the unprecedented consequences of the current outbreak in China. In an attempt to control the disease that has been spreading through East Asia since 2018, massive slaughtering has been taking place, with important consequences for both Chinese and international pork prices. With around half of the Chinese herd having to be slaughtered, a number of questions arise with regard to the prospects for the pork market and the uncertainties about the paths that prices will follow in responding to long‐term market fundamentals. This article focuses on the impact of the ASF outbreak in East Asia on the European pig sector. In particular it analyses potential global pork market developments under two different recovery paths, employing a combination of an Equilibrium Displacement Model and the AGMEMOD modelling system, to provide results at EU and global levels to 2030. Our simulation results point to a short to medium‐term expansion of production capacity in response to higher market prices.
This contribution builds on the accelerator model to produce an investment function in which employment and households' investment are used as proxies for economic activity. This analysis identifies a positive correlation between corporate investment in fixed assets and households' investment in dwellings. Using a panel of 11 OECD countries for the period 1970-2010, the results also confirm that oil prices and interest rates may dampen firms' investment in fixed assets. An interesting feature of this investment function is that it accounts for uncertainty.
The aim of this contribution is to discuss closely the implications of income inequality and the economic policies to tackle it, especially so in view of inequality being one of the main causes of the 2007/2008 international financial crisis and the "great recession" that subsequently emerged. Wealth inequality is also important in this respect, but the focus is on income inequality. Ever since the financial crisis and the subsequent "great recession", inequality of income, and wealth, has increased and the demand for economic policy initiatives to produce a more equal distribution of income and wealth has become more urgent. Such reduction would help to increase the level of economic activity as has been demonstrated again more recently. A number of economic policy initiatives for this purpose will be the focus of this contribution.
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