PurposeClinicopathologic features and biochemical recurrence are sensitive, but not specific, predictors of metastatic disease and lethal prostate cancer. We hypothesize that a genomic expression signature detected in the primary tumor represents true biological potential of aggressive disease and provides improved prediction of early prostate cancer metastasis.MethodsA nested case-control design was used to select 639 patients from the Mayo Clinic tumor registry who underwent radical prostatectomy between 1987 and 2001. A genomic classifier (GC) was developed by modeling differential RNA expression using 1.4 million feature high-density expression arrays of men enriched for rising PSA after prostatectomy, including 213 who experienced early clinical metastasis after biochemical recurrence. A training set was used to develop a random forest classifier of 22 markers to predict for cases - men with early clinical metastasis after rising PSA. Performance of GC was compared to prognostic factors such as Gleason score and previous gene expression signatures in a withheld validation set.ResultsExpression profiles were generated from 545 unique patient samples, with median follow-up of 16.9 years. GC achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75 (0.67–0.83) in validation, outperforming clinical variables and gene signatures. GC was the only significant prognostic factor in multivariable analyses. Within Gleason score groups, cases with high GC scores experienced earlier death from prostate cancer and reduced overall survival. The markers in the classifier were found to be associated with a number of key biological processes in prostate cancer metastatic disease progression.ConclusionA genomic classifier was developed and validated in a large patient cohort enriched with prostate cancer metastasis patients and a rising PSA that went on to experience metastatic disease. This early metastasis prediction model based on genomic expression in the primary tumor may be useful for identification of aggressive prostate cancer.

Purpose Prostate cancer patients with locally advanced disease after radical prostatectomy (RP) are candidates for secondary therapy. However, this higher risk population is heterogeneous and many will not metastasize even when conservatively managed. Given the limited specificity of pathologic features to predict metastasis, newer risk-prediction models are needed. This represents a validation study of a genomic classifier (GC) that predicts post-RP metastasis in a high-risk population. Materials and Methods A case-cohort design was used to sample 1,010 post-RP patients at high risk of recurrence treated between 2000-2006. Patients had preoperative PSA >20 ng/mL, Gleason ≥8, pT3b or GPSM score ≥10. Patients with metastasis at diagnosis or any prior treatment for prostate cancer were excluded. 20% random sampling created a subcohort that included all cases with metastasis. 22-marker GC scores were generated for 219 patients with available genomic data. Receiver operating characteristic and decision curves, competing risk, and weighted regression models assessed GC performance. Results GC had area under the curve of 0.79 for predicting 5-year metastasis post-RP. Decision curves showed that net benefit of GC exceeded clinical-only models. GC was the predominant predictor of metastasis in multivariable analysis. Cumulative incidence of metastasis at 5 years post-RP was 2.4%, 6.0% and 22.5% for patients with low (60% of patients), intermediate (21% of patients), and high (19% of patients) GC scores, respectively (p<0.001). Conclusions These results indicate that genomic information from the primary tumor can identify patients with adverse pathology who are most at risk for metastasis and potentially lethal prostate cancer.

Background Risk prediction models that incorporate biomarkers and clinicopathologic variables may be used to improve decision-making post radical prostatectomy (RP). We compared two previously validated post-RP classifiers—the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment post-Surgical (CAPRA-S) and the Decipher genomic classifier (GC)—to predict prostate cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in a contemporary cohort of RP patients. Objective To evaluate the combined prognostic ability of CAPRA-S and GC to predict CSM. Design, Setting and Participants A cohort of 1,010 patients at high risk of recurrence post-RP was treated at Mayo Clinic between 2000–06. High-risk was defined by any of: pre-operative PSA >20ng/mL, pathological Gleason score ≥8 or stage pT3b. A case-cohort random sample identified 225 patients (cases defined as patients who experienced CSM), among whom CAPRA-S and GC could be determined for 185. Outcome Measurements and Statistical Analysis The scores were evaluated individually and in combination using concordance (c)-index, decision curve analysis, re-classification, cumulative incidence, and Cox regression for prediction of CSM. Results and Limitations Among 185 men, 28 experienced CSM. The c-index for CAPRA-S and GC were 0.75 (95% CI 0.65–0.84) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.68–0.88), respectively. GC showed higher net-benefit on decision curve analysis but a score combining CAPRA-S and GC did not improve AUC after optimism-adjusted bootstrapping. In 82 patients stratified to high-risk based on CAPRA-S score ≥6, GC scores were likewise high-risk for 33, among whom 17 had CSM events. GC reclassified the remaining 49 men as low to intermediate-risk; among these men 3 CSM events were observed. In multivariable analysis, GC and CAPRA-S as continuous variables were independently prognostic of CSM, with hazard ratios of 1.81 (p<0.001, per 0.1 unit change in score) and 1.36 (p=0.05, per one unit change in score). When categorized into risk groups, the multivariable HR for high CAPRA-S scores (≥6) was 2.36 (p=0.04), and 11.26 (p<0.001) for high GC scores (≥0.6). For patients with both high GC and CAPRA-S scores, cumulative incidence of CSM was 45% at 10 years. The study is limited by its retrospective design. Conclusions Both GC and CAPRA-S were significant independent predictors of CSM. GC was shown to re-stratify many men classified as high-risk based on CAPRA-S ≥6 alone. Patients with both high GC and CAPRA-S risk scores were at markedly elevated post-RP risk for lethal prostate cancer. If validated prospectively, these findings suggest that integration of a genomic-clinical classifier may enable better identification of those post-RP patients who should be considered for more aggressive secondary therapies and clinical trials.

BACKGROUND Due to their varied outcomes, men with biochemical recurrence (BCR) following radical prostatectomy (RP) present a management dilemma. Here, we evaluate Decipher, a genomic classifier (GC), for its ability to predict metastasis following BCR. METHODS The study population included 85 clinically high-risk patients who developed BCR after RP. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, weighted Cox proportional hazard models and decision curves were used to compare GC scores to Gleason score (GS), PSA doubling time (PSAdT), time to BCR (ttBCR), the Stephenson nomogram and CAPRA-S for predicting metastatic disease progression. All tests were two-sided with a type I error probability of 5%. RESULTS GC scores stratified men with BCR into those who would or would not develop metastasis (8% of patients with low versus 40% with high scores developed metastasis, P<0.001). The area under the curve for predicting metastasis after BCR was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.76–0.86) for GC, compared to GS 0.64 (0.58–0.70), PSAdT 0.69 (0.61–0.77) and ttBCR 0.52 (0.46–0.59). Decision curve analysis showed that GC scores had a higher overall net benefit compared to models based solely on clinicopathologic features. In multivariable modeling with clinicopathologic variables, GC score was the only significant predictor of metastasis (P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS When compared to clinicopathologic variables, GC better predicted metastatic progression among this cohort of men with BCR following RP. While confirmatory studies are needed, these results suggest that use of GC may allow for better selection of men requiring earlier initiation of treatment at the time of BCR.

Prostate cancer is the most diagnosed cancer among men in the United States. While the majority of patients who undergo surgery (prostatectomy) will essentially be cured, about 30–40% men remain at risk for disease progression and recurrence. Currently, patients are deemed at risk by evaluation of clinical factors, but these do not resolve whether adjuvant therapy will significantly attenuate or delay disease progression for a patient at risk. Numerous efforts using mRNA-based biomarkers have been described for this purpose, but none have successfully reached widespread clinical practice in helping to make an adjuvant therapy decision. Here, we assess the utility of non-coding RNAs as biomarkers for prostate cancer recurrence based on high-resolution oligonucleotide microarray analysis of surgical tissue specimens from normal adjacent prostate, primary tumors, and metastases. We identify differentially expressed non-coding RNAs that distinguish between the different prostate tissue types and show that these non-coding RNAs can predict clinical outcomes in primary tumors. Together, these results suggest that non-coding RNAs are emerging from the “dark matter” of the genome as a new source of biomarkers for characterizing disease recurrence and progression. While this study shows that non-coding RNA biomarkers can be highly informative, future studies will be needed to further characterize the specific roles of these non-coding RNA biomarkers in the development of aggressive disease.