BackgroundChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a commonly reported cause of death and associated with smoking. However, COPD mortality is high in poor countries with low smoking rates. Spirometric restriction predicts mortality better than airflow obstruction, suggesting that the prevalence of restriction could explain mortality rates attributed to COPD. We have studied associations between mortality from COPD and low lung function, and between both lung function and death rates and cigarette consumption and gross national income per capita (GNI).MethodsNational COPD mortality rates were regressed against the prevalence of airflow obstruction and spirometric restriction in 22 Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study sites and against GNI, and national smoking prevalence. The prevalence of airflow obstruction and spirometric restriction in the BOLD sites were regressed against GNI and mean pack years smoked.ResultsNational COPD mortality rates were more strongly associated with spirometric restriction in the BOLD sites (<60 years: men rs=0.73, p=0.0001; women rs=0.90, p<0.0001; 60+ years: men rs=0.63, p=0.0022; women rs=0.37, p=0.1) than obstruction (<60 years: men rs=0.28, p=0.20; women rs=0.17, p<0.46; 60+ years: men rs=0.28, p=0.23; women rs=0.22, p=0.33). Obstruction increased with mean pack years smoked, but COPD mortality fell with increased cigarette consumption and rose rapidly as GNI fell below US$15 000. Prevalence of restriction was not associated with smoking but also increased rapidly as GNI fell below US$15 000.ConclusionsSmoking remains the single most important cause of obstruction but a high prevalence of restriction associated with poverty could explain the high ‘COPD’ mortality in poor countries.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is predicted to become the third most common cause of death and disability worldwide by 2020.The prevalence of COPD defined by the lower limit of normal was estimated using high-quality spirometry in surveys of 14 populations aged o40 yrs. The strength and consistency of associations were assessed using random effects meta-analysis.Pack-years of smoking were associated with risk of COPD at each site. After adjusting for this effect, we still observed significant associations of COPD risk with age (OR 1.52 for a 10 yr age difference, 95% CI 1.35-1.71), body mass index in obese compared with normal weight (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.37-0.67), level of education completed (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.87), hospitalisation with a respiratory problem before age 10 yrs (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.42-3.91), passive cigarette smoke exposure (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.05-1.47), tuberculosis (OR 1.78, 95%CI 1.17-2.72) and a family history of COPD (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.19-1.90).Although smoking is the most important risk factor for COPD, other risk factors are also important. More research is required to elucidate relevant risk factors in low-and middle-income countries where the greatest impact of COPD will occur.

RationaleCriteria for a clinically significant bronchodilator response (BDR) are mainly based on studies in patients with obstructive lung diseases. Little is known about the BDR in healthy general populations, and even less about the worldwide patterns.Methods10 360 adults aged 40 years and older from 14 countries in North America, Europe, Africa and Asia participated in the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study. Spirometry was used before and after an inhaled bronchodilator to determine the distribution of the BDR in population-based samples of healthy non-smokers and individuals with airflow obstruction.ResultsIn 3922 healthy never smokers, the weighted pooled estimate of the 95th percentiles (95% CI) for bronchodilator response were 284 ml (263 to 305) absolute change in forced expiratory volume in 1 s from baseline (ΔFEV1); 12.0% (11.2% to 12.8%) change relative to initial value (%ΔFEV1i); and 10.0% (9.5% to 10.5%) change relative to predicted value (%ΔFEV1p). The corresponding mean changes in forced vital capacity (FVC) were 322 ml (271 to 373) absolute change from baseline (ΔFVC); 10.5% (8.9% to 12.0%) change relative to initial value (ΔFVCi); and 9.2% (7.9% to 10.5%) change relative to predicted value (ΔFVCp). The proportion who exceeded the above threshold values in the subgroup with spirometrically defined Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage 2 and higher (FEV1/FVC <0.7 and FEV1% predicted <80%) were 11.1%, 30.8% and 12.9% respectively for the FEV1-based thresholds and 22.6%, 28.6% and 22.1% respectively for the FVC-based thresholds.ConclusionsThe results provide reference values for bronchodilator responses worldwide that confirm guideline estimates for a clinically significant level of BDR in bronchodilator testing.

This study aimed to compare strategies for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) case finding using data from the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study.Population-based samples of adults aged o40 yrs (n59,390) from 14 countries completed a questionnaire and spirometry. We compared the screening efficiency of differently staged algorithms that used questionnaire data and/or peak expiratory flow (PEF) data to identify persons at risk for COPD and, hence, needing confirmatory spirometry. Separate algorithms were fitted for moderate/severe COPD and for severe COPD. We estimated the cost of each algorithm in 1,000 people.For moderate/severe COPD, use of questionnaire data alone permitted high sensitivity (97%) but required confirmatory spirometry in 80% of participants. Use of PEF necessitated confirmatory spirometry in only 19-22% of subjects, with 83-84% sensitivity. For severe COPD, use of PEF achieved 91-93% sensitivity, requiring confirmatory spirometry in ,9% of participants. Cost analysis suggested that a staged screening algorithm using only PEF initially, followed by confirmatory spirometry as needed, was the most cost-effective case-finding strategy.Our results support the use of PEF as a simple, cost-effective initial screening tool for conducting COPD case-finding in adults aged o40 yrs. These findings should be validated in realworld settings such as the primary care environment.