This paper considers the problem of sequentially detecting a change in the joint distribution of multiple data sources under a sampling constraint. Specifically, the channels or sources generate observations that are independent over time, but not necessarily independent at any given time instant. The sources follow an initial joint distribution, and at an unknown time instant, the joint distribution of an unknown subset of sources changes. Importantly, there is a hard constraint that only a fixed number of sources are allowed to be sampled at each time instant. The goal is to sequentially observe the sources according to the constraint, and stop sampling as quickly as possible after the change while controlling the false alarm rate below a user-specified level. The sources can be selected dynamically based on the already collected data, and thus, a policy for this problem consists of a joint sampling and change-detection rule. A non-randomized policy is studied, and an upper bound is established on its worst-case conditional expected detection delay with respect to both the change point and the observations from the affected sources before the change. It is shown that, in certain cases, this rule achieves first-order asymptotic optimality as the false alarm rate tends to zero, simultaneously under every possible post-change distribution and among all schemes that satisfy the same sampling and false alarm constraints. These general results are subsequently applied to the problems of (i) detecting a change in the marginal distributions of (not necessarily independent) information sources, and (ii) detecting a change in the covariance structure of Gaussian information sources.
The problem of joint sequential detection and isolation is considered in the context of multiple, not necessarily independent, data streams. A multiple testing framework is proposed, where each hypothesis corresponds to a different subset of data streams, the sample size is a stopping time of the observations, and the probabilities of four kinds of error are controlled below distinct, user-specified levels. Two of these errors reflect the detection component of the formulation, whereas the other two the isolation component. The optimal expected sample size is characterized to a first-order asymptotic approximation as the error probabilities go to 0. Different asymptotic regimes, expressing different prioritizations of the detection and isolation tasks, are considered. A novel, versatile family of testing procedures is proposed, in which two distinct, in general, statistics are computed for each hypothesis, one addressing the detection task and the other the isolation task. Tests in this family, of various computational complexities, are shown to be asymptotically optimal under different setups. The general theory is applied to the detection and isolation of anomalous, not necessarily independent, data streams, as well as to the detection and isolation of an unknown dependence structure.
This paper formulates a general cross validation framework for signal denoising. The general framework is then applied to nonparametric regression methods such as Trend Filtering and Dyadic CART. The resulting cross validated versions are then shown to attain nearly the same rates of convergence as are known for the optimally tuned analogues. There did not exist any previous theoretical analyses of cross validated versions of Trend Filtering or Dyadic CART. To illustrate the generality of the framework we also propose and study cross validated versions of two fundamental estimators; lasso for high dimensional linear regression and singular value thresholding for matrix estimation. Our general framework is inspired by the ideas in Chatterjee and Jafarov (2015) and is potentially applicable to a wide range of estimation methods which use tuning parameters.
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