No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

Smoothing of generation variability, i.e., reduction of variance in the aggregate generation is crucial for grid integration of large-scale wind power plants. Prior studies of smoothing have focused on geographical smoothing, based on distance. In contrast, we propose a novel concept “diurnal smoothing” that depends on spatial variations in the timing of seasonal-mean diurnal cycle peak. Considering the case of India, which experiences a strong diurnal cycle of wind-speed, we show how spatial heterogeneity in the wind diurnal cycle can be exploited to smooth wind power variability over and above geographical smoothing. For any given separation distance between sites, the hourly wind speed correlation is highly variable. Difference in timing of the diurnal cycle peak is an important factor for explaining this variability and we define smoothing from differently timed seasonal-mean diurnal cycle as “Diurnal smoothing”. We show that apart from separation distance, the diurnal cycle is crucial for correlation among sites separated by 200 km or more with strong diurnal cycles (amplitude more than approximately 0.5 m/s). Thus, diurnal smoothing is a vital factor in the aggregation of large wind power plants, and grid integration is benefited by considering (in addition to distance) new wind plant sites with largely separated diurnal cycles, especially those differing by roughly 12 hours. Such diurnal smoothing is relevant for regions across the world with strong wind speed diurnal cycles. Ultimately grid integration depends on variations in total wind and solar generation and demand. Hence, their combined effects must be studied.

<p>In a steadily decarbonizing electricity system, it becomes increasingly important to explore cost-effective wind-solar-storage combinations to replace conventional fossil-fuelled power generation without compromising grid reliability. For a renewable-rich state in Southern India (Karnataka), we systematically assess the economics of various wind-solar-battery energy mixes given decreasing fossil-fuelled base generation and hydropower availability using Pareto frontiers. Our approach considers hourly load data, simulates generation based on hourly weather reanalysis products, and models the effects of battery charging and discharging on battery lifetime. We find that the allowed curtailment level limits the achievable grid reliability. Given declining baseload generation and available hydropower in the state electricity grid, the wind-solar-battery combined system can provide limited reliability, which declines as the grid is progressively decarbonized. A fully decarbonized grid with 2 GW of hydropower and a stringent 10% curtailment threshold can achieve maximum reliability of 66%. These values are sensitive to available hydropower capacity, baseload generation from fossil fuel, and the curtailment threshold. For a fully decarbonized grid, increasing the allowed curtailment threshold of renewable generation (during times of excess) to 80% would ensure 99% grid reliability. However, such a solution would be costly, requiring large wind-solar installations that exceed officially assessed potential, constrained by land allocation. Furthermore, these calculations show that adding storage capacity without concomitant expansion of renewable generation capacity is inefficient. The findings highlight the importance of a fresh examination of curtailment thresholds, renewable potential, and possibilities of demand-side management to evaluate pathways to the decarbonization of the electricity grid while maintaining reliability.</p>