This study aims to improve estimates of dispersal by including information on larval traits, and in particular to explore how larval depth distribution affects connectivity and MPA (marine protected area) functionality in the Baltic Sea. A field survey showed that both invertebrates and fish differed in their larval depth distribution, ranging from surface waters to >100 m. A biophysical model of larval dispersal in the Baltic Sea showed that decreased depth distribution increased average dispersal distance 2.5-fold, decreased coastal retention and local recruitment, and substantially increased connectivity. Together with pelagic larval duration (PLD), depth distribution explained 80% of total variation in dispersal distance, whereas spawning season, and geographic and annual variations in circulation had only marginal effects. Median dispersal distances varied between 8 and 46 km, with 10% of simulated trajectories dispersing 30 to 160 km depending on drift depth and PLD. In the Baltic Sea, the majority of shallow Natura 2000 MPAs are < 8 km in diameter. In the present study, only 1 of the 11 assessed larval taxa would have a recruitment >10% within MPAs of this size. Connectivity between MPAs was expected to be low for most larval trait combinations. Our simulations and the empirical data suggest that the MPA size within the Natura 2000 system is considerably below what is required for local recruitment of most sessile invertebrates and sedentary fish. Future designs of MPA networks would benefit from spatially explicit biophysical models that consider dispersal and connectivity for complex circulation patterns and informed larval traits.

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The water exchange of the Baltic coastal zone is characterized by its seasonally varying regimes. In the safety assessment of a potential repository for spent nuclear fuel, it is important to assess the consequences of a hypothetical leak of radionuclides through the seabed into a waterborne transport phase. In particular, estimates of the associated residence times in the near-shore coastal zone are of interest. There are several methods to quantify such measures, of which three are presented here. Using the coastal location of Forsmark (Sweden) as an example, methods based on passive tracers, particle trajectories, and the average age distribution of exogeneous water parcels are compared for a representative one-year cycle. Tracer-based methods can simulate diffusivity more realistically than the other methods. Trajectory-based methods can handle Lagrangian dispersion processes due to advection but neglect diffusion on the sub-grid scale. The method based on the concept of average age (AvA) of exogeneous water can include all such sources simultaneously not only boundary water bodies but also various (fresh)-water discharges. Due to the inclusion of sub-grid diffusion this method gives a smoother measure of the water renewal. It is shown that backward in time trajectories and AvA-times are basically equipollent methods, yielding correlated results within the limits set by the diffusivity.

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