This paper describes the philosophy, algorithms, and implementation of a computer‐oriented land use forecasting‐water policy simulation model. The model is applicable to SMSA's organized on a census tract basis by counties. The forecasts are macro to the census tract level for industrial, residential, commercial and public land uses, and are dynamically altered by hypothesized water management policies. Modeling is based on an economic data base of the region, and is extremely flexible for the user. An example set of simulations is included for illustrative purposes.

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This paper describes the techniques of factor and discriminant analyses to isolate and quantify the statistical differences between firms located on flood plains and those located off flood plains. The research effort described consists of three segments: data collection, isolation of potential classification variables, and the determination of the appropriate discriminant functions to classify a given fm as either on or off the flood plain. Significant classification functions are developed for both xanufacturing and commercial establishments, whose arguments include dollar sales volume, total shipping cost, total employee cost, dollar valuations on the building and inventories, all on an annual basis, and the square footage of the site. ' Paper No. 731 21 of the Water Resources Bulletin. Discussions are open until December 1,1974.