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Previous research has shown that the consensus of individual exchange rate forecasts performs no better than many commonly used forecasting models in predicting future exchange rates. Studies on equity and bond markets have explored the effects of dispersion in forecasts on the predictive power of forecasts; however, no earlier paper has investigated such effects in the context of the foreign exchange market. This study explores the role of consensus forecast dispersion as a factor leading to bias and anchoring in exchange rate forecasts. Our analysis of five currency pairs reveals that consensus forecasts mostly appear to be unbiased predictors of exchange rates in the long run, but most are unable to pass tests for short‐run unbiasedness. In three of the five currencies examined it appears that forecasters should take greater account of reported forecast dispersion. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Advocates of living wage laws claim wage mandates will help families escape poverty by increasing family earnings beyond the poverty line. This article examines such programs and the effect a change in pay would have on taxes and benefits for low-income families in cities where living wage laws have been enacted or considered. Many families living with earnings below the poverty line take advantage of programs specifically designed to help them out of poverty. Phase-out rates of benefit programs are structured so that additional earnings from living wages largely disappear through benefit reduction and increased taxation. The living wage appears to be badly targeted and ineffective at raising comprehensive disposable income. Such vanishing benefits reduce the ability of living wage laws to reduce poverty. Nearly 75% of those affected by the living wage were not initially in poverty, and more than 40% had initial incomes at least twice the poverty line.