Given a water distribution network, where should we place sensors to quickly detect contaminants? Or, which blogs should we read to avoid missing important stories? These seemingly different problems share common structure: Outbreak detection can be modeled as selecting nodes (sensor locations, blogs) in a network, in order to detect the spreading of a virus or information as quickly as possible. We present a general methodology for near optimal sensor placement in these and related problems. We demonstrate that many realistic outbreak detection objectives (e.g., detection likelihood, population affected) exhibit the property of "submodularity". We exploit submodularity to develop an efficient algorithm that scales to large problems, achieving near optimal placements, while being 700 times faster than a simple greedy algorithm. We also derive online bounds on the quality of the placements obtained by any algorithm. Our algorithms and bounds also handle cases where nodes (sensor locations, blogs) have different costs. We evaluate our approach on several large real-world problems, including a model of a water distribution network from the EPA, and real blog data. The obtained sensor placements are provably near optimal, providing a constant fraction of the optimal solution. We show that the approach scales, achieving speedups and savings in storage of several orders of magnitude. We also show how the approach leads to deeper insights in both applications, answering multicriteria trade-off, cost-sensitivity and generalization questions.

Abstract-Many applications require optimizing an unknown, noisy function that is expensive to evaluate. We formalize this task as a multiarmed bandit problem, where the payoff function is either sampled from a Gaussian process (GP) or has low norm in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We resolve the important open problem of deriving regret bounds for this setting, which imply novel convergence rates for GP optimization. We analyze an intuitive Gaussian process upper confidence bound ( -algorithm, and bound its cumulative regret in terms of maximal information gain, establishing a novel connection between GP optimization and experimental design. Moreover, by bounding the latter in terms of operator spectra, we obtain explicit sublinear regret bounds for many commonly used covariance functions. In some important cases, our bounds have surprisingly weak dependence on the dimensionality. In our experiments on real sensor data, -compares favorably with other heuristical GP optimization approaches.

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Submodularity1 is a property of set functions with deep theoretical consequences and farreaching applications. At first glance it appears very similar to concavity, in other ways it resembles convexity. It appears in a wide variety of applications: in Computer Science it has recently been identified and utilized in domains such as viral marketing (Kempe et al., 2003), information gathering , image segmentation (Boykov and Jolly, 2001;Kohli et al., 2009;Jegelka and Bilmes, 2011a), document summarization (Lin and Bilmes, 2011), and speeding up satisfiability solvers . In this survey we will introduce submodularity and some of its generalizations, illustrate how it arises in various applications, and discuss algorithms for optimizing submodular functions. Our emphasis here is on maximization; there are many important results and applications related to minimizing submodular functions that we do not cover 2 .As a concrete running example, we will consider the problem of deploying sensors in a drinking water distribution network (see Figure 1) in order to detect contamination. In this domain, we may have a model of how contaminants, accidentally or maliciously introduced into the network, spread over time. Such a model then allows to quantify the benefit f (A) of deploying sensors at a particular set A of locations (junctions or pipes in the network) in terms of the detection performance (such as average time to detection). Based on this notion of utility, we then wish to find an optimal subset A ⊆ V of locations maximizing the utility, max A f (A), subject to some constraints (such as bounded cost). This application requires solving a difficult real-world optimization problem, that can be handled with the techniques discussed in this chapter (Krause et al. 2008b show in detail how submodular optimization can be applied in this domain.) We will also discuss more complex settings, for example how one can incorporate complex constraints on the feasible sets A, robustly optimize against adversarially chosen objective functions f , or adaptively select sensors based on previous observations. Several algorithms for submodular optimization described in this survey are implemented in an open source Matlab toolbox 3 (Krause, 2010).

Lyme borreliosis, caused by spirochaetes of the Borrelia burgdorferi genospecies complex, is the most commonly reported tick-borne infection in Europe and North America. The non-specific nature of many of its clinical manifestations presents a diagnostic challenge and concise case definitions are essential for its satisfactory management. Lyme borreliosis is very similar in Europe and North America but the greater variety of genospecies in Europe leads to some important differences in clinical presentation. These new case definitions for European Lyme borreliosis emphasise recognition of clinical manifestations supported by relevant laboratory criteria and may be used in a clinical setting and also for epidemiological investigations.