We study a McKean-Vlasov equation arising from a mean-field model of a particle system with positive feedback. As particles hit a barrier they cause the other particles to jump in the direction of the barrier and this feedback mechanism leads to the possibility that the system can exhibit contagious blow-ups. Using a fixed-point argument we construct a differentiable solution up to a first explosion time. Our main contribution is a proof of uniqueness in the class of càdlàg functions, which confirms the validity of related propagation-of-chaos results in the literature. We extend the allowed initial conditions to include densities with any power law decay at the boundary, and connect the exponent of decay with the growth exponent of the solution in small time in a precise way. This takes us asymptotically close to the control on initial conditions required for a global solution theory. A novel minimality result and trapping technique are introduced to prove uniqueness. arXiv:1801.07703v3 [math.PR]

We propose a dynamic mean field model for 'systemic risk' in large financial systems, which we derive from a system of interacting diffusions on the positive half-line with an absorbing boundary at the origin. These diffusions represent the distancesto-default of financial institutions and absorption at zero corresponds to default. As a way of modelling correlated exposures and herd behaviour, we consider a common source of noise and a form of mean-reversion in the drift. Moreover, we introduce an endogenous contagion mechanism whereby the default of one institution can cause a drop in the distances-to-default of the other institutions. In this way, we aim to capture key 'system-wide' effects on risk. The resulting mean field limit is characterized uniquely by a nonlinear SPDE on the half-line with a Dirichlet boundary condition. The density of this SPDE gives the conditional law of a non-standard 'conditional' McKean-Vlasov diffusion, for which we provide a novel upper Dirichlet heat kernel type estimate that is essential to the proofs. Depending on the realizations of the common noise and the rate of mean reversion, the SPDE can exhibit rapid accelerations in the loss of mass at the boundary. In other words, the contagion mechanism can give rise to periods of significant systemic default clustering.

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We extend a model of positive feedback and contagion in large mean-field systems by introducing a common source of noise driven by Brownian motion. Although the dynamics in the model are continuous, the feedback effect can lead to jump discontinuities in the solutions, which we refer to as 'blow-ups'. We prove existence of solutions to the corresponding conditional McKean-Vlasov equation, by realising them as suitable limit points of the finite-dimensional particle system, and we show that the pathwise realisation of the common noise can both trigger and prevent blow-ups.

We extend a model of positive feedback and contagion in large mean-field systems, by introducing a common source of noise driven by Brownian motion. Although the driving dynamics are continuous, the positive feedback effect can lead to 'blow-up' phenomena whereby solutions develop jump-discontinuities. Our main results are twofold and concern the conditional McKean-Vlasov formulation of the model. First and foremost, we show that there are global solutions to this McKean-Vlasov problem, which can be realised as limit points of a motivating particle system with common noise. Furthermore, we derive results on the occurrence of blow-ups, thereby showing how these events can be triggered or prevented by the pathwise realisations of the common noise.