We propose a novel cluster-based reduced-order modelling (CROM) strategy of unsteady flows. CROM combines the cluster analysis pioneered in Gunzburger's group (Burkardt et al. 2006) and and transition matrix models introduced in fluid dynamics in Eckhardt's group (Schneider et al. 2007). CROM constitutes a potential alternative to POD models and generalises the Ulam-Galerkin method classically used in dynamical systems to determine a finite-rank approximation of the Perron-Frobenius operator. The proposed strategy processes a time-resolved sequence of flow snapshots in two steps. First, the snapshot data are clustered into a small number of representative states, called centroids, in the state space. These centroids partition the state space in complementary non-overlapping regions (centroidal Voronoi cells). Departing from the standard algorithm, the probabilities of the clusters are determined, and the states are sorted by analysis of the transition matrix. Secondly, the transitions between the states are dynamically modelled using a Markov process. Physical mechanisms are then distilled by a refined analysis of the Markov process, e.g. using finite-time Lyapunov exponent and entropic methods. This CROM framework is applied to the Lorenz attractor (as illustrative example), to velocity fields of the spatially evolving incompressible mixing layer and the three-dimensional turbulent wake of a bluff body. For these examples, CROM is shown to identify non-trivial quasi-attractors and transition processes in an unsupervised manner. CROM has numerous potential applications for the systematic identification of physical mechanisms of complex dynamics, for comparison of flow evolution models, for the identification of precursors to desirable and undesirable events, and for flow control applications exploiting nonlinear actuation dynamics.Comment: 48 pages, 30 figures. Revised version with additional material. Accepted for publication in Journal of Fluid Mechanic

The steady-state flow generated by a rotating bottom in a closed cylindrical container and the resulting vortex breakdown bubbles have been studied experimentally. By comparing the flow inside two different container geometries, one with a rigid cover and the other with a free surface, we examined the way in which the formation and structure of the breakdown bubbles depend on the surrounding flow. Details of the flow were visualized by means of the electrolytic precipitation technique, whereas a particle tracking technique was used to characterize the whole flow field. We found that the breakdown bubbles inside the container flow are in many ways similar to those in vortex tubes. First, the bubbles are open with in- and outflow and second, their structure is, like in the case of vortex breakdown in pipe flows, highly axisymmetric on the upstream side of the bubble and asymmetric on their rear side. However, and surprisingly, we observed bubbles which are open and stationary at the same time. This shows that open breakdown bubbles are not necessarily the result of periodic oscillations of the recirculation zone. The asymmetry of the flow structure is found to be related to the existence of asymmetric flow separations on the container wall. If the angular velocity of the rotating bottom is increased the evolution of the breakdown bubbles is different in both configurations: in the rigid cover case the breakdown bubbles disappear but persist in the free surface case.