The utilisation of motor performance tests for talent identification in youth sports is discussed intensively in talent research. This article examines the reliability, differential stability and validity of the motor diagnostics conducted nationwide by the German football talent identification and development programme and provides reference values for a standardised interpretation of the diagnostics results. Highly selected players (the top 4% of their age groups, U12-U15) took part in the diagnostics at 17 measurement points between spring 2004 and spring 2012 (N = 68,158). The heterogeneous test battery measured speed abilities and football-specific technical skills (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting, juggling). For all measurement points, the overall score and the speed tests showed high internal consistency, high test-retest reliability and satisfying differential stability. The diagnostics demonstrated satisfying factorial-related validity with plausible and stable loadings on the two empirical factors "speed" and "technical skills". The score, and the technical skills dribbling and juggling, differentiated the most among players of different performance levels and thus showed the highest criterion-related validity. Satisfactory psychometric properties for the diagnostics are an important prerequisite for a scientifically sound rating of players' actual motor performance and for the future examination of the prognostic validity for success in adulthood.

In the debate about the usefulness of motor diagnostics in the talent identification process, the prognostic validity for tests conducted in early adolescence is of critical interest. Using a group- and individual-based statistical approach, this prospective cohort study evaluated a nationwide assessment of speed abilities and technical skills regarding its relevance for future achievement levels. The sample consisted of 22,843 U12-players belonging to the top 4% in German football. The U12-results in five tests served as predictors for players' selection levels in U16-U19 (youth national team, regional association, youth academy, not selected). Group-mean differences proved the prognostic relevance for all predictors. Low individual selection probabilities demonstrated limited predictive values, while excellent test results proved their particular prognostic relevance. Players scoring percentile ranks (PRs) ≥ 99 had a 12 times higher chance to become youth national team players than players scoring PR < 99. Simulating increasing score cut-off values not only enhanced specificity (correctly identified non-talents) but also led to lower sensitivity (loss of talents). Extending the current research, these different approaches revealed the ambiguity of the diagnostics' prognostic relevance, representing both the usefulness and several pitfalls of nationwide diagnostics. Therefore, the present diagnostics can support but not substitute for coaches' subjective decisions for talent identification, and multidisciplinary designs are required.

This study examined the disturbing effects of relative age on the talent identification process in the talent development programme of the German Football Association. The bias in the selection rate was examined via the extent of relative age effects. The bias in motor performance diagnostics was analysed by comparing the motor performance of selected players with normal motor development. The mechanisms underlying the relative age biases in motor performance were examined by modelling the direct and indirect effects of relative age on single motor performance tests for sprint, running agility, dribbling and ball passing and control. Data from 10,130 selected football players from the U12 to U15 age groups were collected in autumn 2010. The birth distribution differed significantly from the reference population with approximately 61% of the players born in the first half of the year. The selection probability was approximately two times higher for players born in the first quarter of the year than for players born in the last quarter. Revised motor performance diagnostics showed better results on average for relatively younger players. Path analysis revealed significant direct and indirect relative age effects for physiologically demanding tests and almost no effects for technically demanding tests. Large sample sizes allowed high resolution in relative age with additional informational content and multivariate modelling of the complex relationships among relative age, physical development and motor performance. The results are discussed on how relative age affects the effectiveness and fairness of talent identification and development processes.

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