Aim: Mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) remains high, particularly among elderly, who represents the most rapidly growing segment of the ESRD population in wealthier countries. We developed and validated a risk score in elderly patients to predict 6-month mortality after dialysis initiation. Methods: We used data from a cohort of 421 patients, aged 65 years and over who started dialysis between 2009 and 2016, in our Nephrology department. The predictive score was developed using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. A bootstrapping technique was used for internal validation. Results: The overall mortality within 6 months was 14.0%. Five independent predictors were identified, and a points system was constructed: age 75 years or older (2 points), coronary artery disease (2), cerebrovascular disease with hemiplegia (2), time of nephrology care before dialysis (<3.0 months [2]; ≥3 to <12 months [1]), and serum albumin levels (3.0–3.49 g/dL [1]; <3.0 g/dL [2]). A score of 6 identified patients with a 70% risk of 6-month mortality. Model performance was good in both discrimination (area under the curve of 0.793; [95% CI 0.73–0.86]) and validation (concordance statistics of 0.791 [95% CI 0.73–0.85]). Conclusions: We developed a simple prediction score based on readily available clinical and laboratory data that can be a practical and useful tool to assess short-term prognosis in elderly patients starting dialysis. It may help to inform patients and their families about ESRD treatment options and provide a more patient-centered overall approach to care.

Introduction: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an independent risk factor for several unfavorable outcomes including cardiovascular disease (CVD), particularly in the elderly, who represent the most rapidly growing segment of the end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) population. Portugal has the highest European unadjusted incidence and prevalence rates of ESKD. In 2012, we started to follow a cohort of elderly CKD patients, we describe their baseline characteristics, risk profile, and cardiovascular disease burden. Methods: All CKD patients aged 65 years and older referred to our department during 2012 were enrolled. Baseline data included: demographic, CKD stage, medication, comorbid conditions. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated by the CKD-EPI formula. Results: A total of 416 patients, 50% referred by primary care physicians, aged 77 ± 7 years, 52% male, with a median eGFR of 32 mL/min/1.73m2 participated in the study. Fifty percent had diabetes (DM), 85% dyslipidemia, 96% hypertension; 26% were current/former smokers, and 24% had a body mass index > 30 kg/m2. The prevalence of CVD was 62% and higher in stage 4-5 patients; in diabetics, it gradually increased with CKD progression (stage 3a < stage 3b < stage 4-5) (39, 58, 82%; p < 0.001). Conclusions: At baseline, our CKD elderly cohort had a higher burden of CVD. The prevalence of CVD was greater than in other European CKD cohorts. Lower level of eGFR was associated with a greater burden of CVD and was more pronounced in diabetics, highlighting the importance of strategically targeting cardiovascular risk reduction in these patients.

Patients who are candidates for a second kidney transplant (SKT) frequently have a higher level of panel reactive antibodies (PRA). We assessed the allosensitisation change after a first graft failure (GF), its predictors and impact on retransplantat outcomes. We retrospectively selected 140 adult patients who received a SKT. Recipient and donor characteristics were analyzed. We defined the delta PRA (dPRA) as the difference between peak PRA before the SKT and first one (cohort median value=+10%). Logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors for dPRA≥10% and acute rejection (AR) in the SKT. Univariable and multivariable Cox analysis was applied to assess independent predictors of second GF. Risk factors for dPRA≥10% at SKT were AR (OR=2.57; P=0.022), first graft survival <1 year (OR=2.47; P=0.030) and ABDR HLA mismatch (OR=1.38 per each mismatch; P=0.038). AR in the SKT was associated with dPRA≥10% (OR=2.79; P=0.047). Induction with a lymphocyte-depleting agent had a protective effect (OR=0.23; P=0.010). SKT survival was lower (P=0.008) in patients with a dPRA≥10% (75.6%, 60.5% in dPRA≥10%; 88.6%, 88.6% in dPRA<10% patients at 5 and 10 years, post-transplant respectively). Multivariable Cox regression showed that dPRA≥10% (HR=2.38, P=0.042), delayed graft function (HR=2.82, P=0.006) and AR (HR=3.30, P=0.001) in the SKT were independent predictors of retransplant failure. This study shows that an increased allosensitisation at retransplant was associated with the degree of HLA mismatch and led to poorer outcomes. De-emphasis of HLA matching in current allocation policies may be undesirable, particularly in patients with a higher chance of needing a SKT.