Steroidal estrogens, originating principally from human excretion, are likely to play a major role in causing widespread endocrine disruption in wild populations of the roach (Rutilus rutilus), a common cyprinid fish, in rivers contaminated by treated sewage effluents. Given the extent of this problem, risk assessment models are needed to predict the location and severity of endocrine disruption in river catchments and to identify areas where regulation of sewage discharges to remove these contaminants is necessary. In this study we attempted to correlate the extent of endocrine disruption in roach in British rivers, with their predicted exposure to steroid estrogens derived from the human population. The predictions of steroid estrogen exposure at each river site were determined by combining the modeled concentrations of the individual steroid estrogens [17β -estradiol (E2), estrone (E1), and 17α -ethinylestradiol (EE2)] in each sewage effluent with their predicted dilution in the immediate receiving water. This model was applied to 45 sites on 39 rivers throughout the United Kingdom. Each site studied was then categorized as either high, medium, or low “risk” on the basis of the assumed additive potency of the three steroid estrogens calculated from data derived from published studies in various cyprinid fish species. We sampled 1,438 wild roach from the predicted high-, medium-, and low-risk river sites and examined them for evidence and severity of endocrine disruption. Both the incidence and the severity of intersex in wild roach were significantly correlated with the predicted concentrations of the natural estrogens (E1 and E2) and the synthetic contraceptive pill estrogen (EE2) present. Predicted steroid estrogen exposure was, however, less well correlated with the plasma vitellogenin concentration measured in the same fish. Moreover, we found no correlation between any of the end points measured in the roach and the proportion of industrial effluents entering the rivers we studied. Overall, our results provide further and substantive evidence to support the hypothesis that steroidal estrogens play a major role in causing intersex in wild freshwater fish in rivers in the United Kingdom and clearly show that the location and severity of these endocrine-disrupting effects can be predicted.

To predict sewage influent and effluent concentrations of the steroid estrogens 17beta-estradiol, estrone, and 17alpha-ethinylestradiol, a review of human excretion was carried out. This included conjugation and metabolism of the natural and synthetic steroid estrogens within the body, together with quantities excreted in the urine and feces by different members of the population. This has been combined with fate and behavior information for conjugated and unconjugated estrogens in the sewage treatment system to enable sewage works influent and effluent concentration predictions to be made. The model has proved to be reasonably accurate when tested against recent measurements of these steroid estrogens in the influent and effluent of sewage treatment works. The model may be used with river dilution ratios to predict which sewage treatment works are most likely to cause the greatest endocrine disruption due to steroid estrogens.

Water samples were collected in spring, summer, and winter from English rivers in urban/industrial (River Aire and River Calder, Yorkshire, UK) and rural environments (River Thames, Oxfordshire, UK) to study the biodegradation potential of the key steroid estrogen 17beta-estradiol (E2) and its synthetic derivate ethinylestradiol (EE2). Microorganisms in the river water samples were capable of transforming E2 to estrone (E1) with half-lives of 0.2 to 9 d when incubated at 20 degrees C. The E1 was then further degraded at similar rates. The most rapid biodegradation rates were associated with the downstream summer samples of the River Aire and River Calder. E2 degradation rates were similar for spiking concentrations throughout the range of 20 ng/L to 500 microg/L. Microbial cleavage of the steroid ring system was demonstrated by release of radiolabeled CO2 from the aromatic ring of E2 (position 4). When E2 was degraded, the loss of estrogenicity, measured by the yeast estrogen screen (YES) assay, closely followed the loss of the parent molecule. Thus, apart from the transient formation of E1, the degradation of E2 does not form other significantly estrogenic intermediates. The E2 could also be degraded when incubated with anaerobic bed sediments. Compared to E2, EE2 was much more resistant to biodegradation, but both E2 and EE2 were susceptible to photodegradation, with half-lives in the order of 10 d under ideal conditions.

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In the past 10 years, many thousands of research papers covering the many different aspects of endocrine disruption in the environment have been published. What has been learned from all this research? We have tried to reduce this very large volume of research into a relatively small number of "lessons". Hence, this paper is not a typical review, but instead it summarizes our personal opinions on what we consider are the major messages to have come from all this research. We realize that what has been a lesson to us may have been obvious from the outset to someone more knowledgeable on that particular aspect of the burgeoning field of endocrine disruption. In addition, it is inevitable that others will consider that we have "missed" some lessons that they would have expected to find included in our list. If so, we encourage them to submit them as responses to our paper. Our own lessons range widely, from the design and interpretation of data from fieldwork studies, through some key messages to come out of the very many laboratory studies that have been conducted, to issues around the sources and fates in the environment of endocrine-disrupting chemicals, and finally to the key role of sewage treatment in controlling the concentrations of these chemicals in the aquatic environment. Having (hopefully) learned our lessons, we have then applied them to the difficult issue of how best to approach future concerns about the potential impacts of other new and emerging contaminants (e.g., pharmaceuticals) on wildlife.