The development of a dynamical model seasonal prediction service for island nations in the tropical South Pacific is described. The forecast model is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical seasonal forecast system. Using a hindcast set for the period 1982-2006, POAMA is shown to provide skillful forecasts of El Niño and La Niña many months in advance and, because the model faithfully simulates the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall associated with displacements of the southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and ITCZ during La Niña and El Niño, it also provides good predictions of rainfall throughout the tropical Pacific region. The availability of seasonal forecasts from POAMA should be beneficial to Pacific island countries for the production of regional climate outlooks across the region.

Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. 804quences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.

The position and orientation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), modulated by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), determine many of the potentially predictable interannual variations in rainfall in the South Pacific region. In this study, the predictability of the SPCZ in austral summer is assessed using two coupled (ocean‐atmosphere) global circulation model (CGCM)‐based seasonal prediction systems: the Japan Meteorological Agency's Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere General Circulation Model (JMA/MRI‐CGCM) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean‐Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA‐M24). Forecasts of austral summer rainfall, initialized in November are assessed over the period 1980–2010. The climatology of CGCM precipitation in the SPCZ region compares favorably to rainfall analyses over subsets of years characterizing different phases of ENSO. While the CGCMs display biases in the mean SPCZ latitudes, they reproduce interannual variability in austral summer SPCZ position indices for forecasts out to 4 months, with temporal correlations greater than 0.6. The summer latitude of the western branch of the SPCZ is predictable with correlations of the order of 0.6 for forecasts initialized as early as September, while the correlation for the eastern branch only exceeds 0.6 for forecasts initialized in November. Encouragingly, the models are able to simulate the large displacement of the SPCZ during zonal SPCZ years 1982–1983, 1991–1992, and 1997–1998.

The statistical model SCOPIC (Seasonal Climate Outlook for Pacific Island Countries) has been used to produce seasonal forecasts in ten Pacific Island nations since mid-2007 to improve their seasonal forecasting capacity and to provide timely warnings to changes in rainfall. However, to date there has been no detailed hindcast validation study to compare the forecast skill from the different predictors used to produce the seasonal forecasts at different stations from across the Pacific region. Here, we compare the rainfall forecasts created by the linear discriminant analysis model within SCOPIC using the four predictors: the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI); empirical orthogonal functions of sea surface temperature anomalies (SST1&9) and the NINO3.4 and the 5VAR index. This indicates that skill varies from season to season across the Pacific, with the highest skill in the austral summer and lowest skill in the austral winter. This study using tercile hit rates and LEPS percentage scores shows the 5VAR index has slightly superior skill compared to the NINO3.4, SOI and the SST1&9 indices, but results will vary depending on the station location, analysis period and the number of months used to calculate the predictor value.

Lack of standardization of clinically compliant culture protocols of mesenchymal stem cells for re-implantation in humans have hindered clinical progress in the field of tissue regeneration to repair maxillofacial and orthopedic defects. The goal of this study was to establish a clinically relevant osteogenic protocol for collection and expansion of autologous stem cells to be used at Marshall University for re-implantation and repair of maxillofacial and orthopedic conditions. Human bone marrow (hBM) samples were collected from patients undergoing intramedullary nail fixation for closed femoral fractures. hBM mesenchymal cells were expanded by growing them first in Petri dishes for two weeks, followed by a week of culture using Perfecta 3D Hanging Drop Plates®. Various scaffold materials were tested and analyzed for cellular integration, vitality, and differentiation capacity of harvested hBM-MSCs including: 60/40 blend of hydroxyapatite biomatrix; Acellular bone composite discs; Allowash®, cancellous bone cubes; PLGA (poly lactic-co-glycolic acid); and Woven chitin derived fiber. We found that the 3D spheroid culture allowed production of hBM mesenchymal cells that retained osteoblast differentiation capacity over a monolayer culture of hBM-MSCs without the need to use chemical or hormonal modulation. We also observed that hydroxyapatite and Allowash cancellous bone scaffolds allowed better cell integration and viability properties as compared to other materials tested in this study. In conclusion, the multimodal culture methodology we developed creates actively differentiating stem-cell spheroids that can then be readily utilized in clinical practices to improve the regeneration of tissues of the head and the body.