Many attempts to predict the biotic responses to climate change rely on the 'climate envelope' approach, in which the current distribution of a species is mapped in climate-space and then, if the position of that climate-space changes, the distribution of the species is predicted to shift accordingly. The flaw in this approach is that distributions of species also reflect the influence of interactions with other species, so predictions based on climate envelopes may be very misleading if the interactions between species are altered by climate change. An additional problem is that current distributions may be the result of sources and sinks, in which species appear to thrive in places where they really persist only because individuals disperse into them from elsewhere. Here we use microcosm experiments on simple but realistic assemblages to show how misleading the climate envelope approach can be. We show that dispersal and interactions, which are important elements of population dynamics, must be included in predictions of biotic responses to climate change.

[1] Breaking waves on the ocean surface produce bubbles that, upon bursting, inject seawater constituents into the atmosphere. Nascent aerosols were generated by bubbling zero-air through flowing seawater within an RH-controlled chamber deployed at Bermuda and analyzed for major chemical and physical characteristics. The composition of feed seawater was representative of the surrounding ocean. Relative size distributions of inorganic aerosol constituents were similar to those in ambient air. Ca 2+ was significantly enriched relative to seawater (median factor = 1.2). If in the form of CaCO 3 , these enrichments would have important implications for pH-dependent processes. Other inorganic constituents were present at ratios indistinguishable from those in seawater. Soluble organic carbon (OC) was highly enriched in all size fractions (median factor for all samples = 387). Number size distributions exhibited two lognormal modes. The number production flux of each mode was linearly correlated with bubble rate. At 80% RH, the larger mode exhibited a volume centroid of $5-mm diameter and included $95% of the inorganic sea-salt mass; water comprised 79% to 90% of volume. At 80% RH, the smaller mode exhibited a number centroid of 0.13-mm diameter; water comprised 87% to 90% of volume. The median mass ratio of organic matter to sea salt in the smallest size fraction (geometric mean diameter = 0.13 mm) was 4:1. These results support the hypothesis that bursting bubbles are an important global source of CN and CCN with climatic implications. Primary marine aerosols also influence radiative transfer via multiphase processing of sulfur and other climate-relevant species.Citation: Keene, W. C., et al. (2007), Chemical and physical characteristics of nascent aerosols produced by bursting bubbles at a model air-sea interface,

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Predicting the response of communities to climate change is a major challenge for ecology. Communities may well not respond as entities but be disrupted, particularly if trophic levels respond differently, but as yet there is no evidence for differential responses from natural systems. We therefore analyzed unusually detailed plant and animal data collected over 20 years from two grassland communities to determine whether functional group climate sensitivity differed between trophic levels. We found that sensitivity increases significantly with increasing trophic level. This differential sensitivity would lead to community destabilization under climate change, not simple geographical shifts, and consequently must be incorporated in predictive ecological climate models.