Although the equilibrium composition of many alloy surfaces is well understood, the rate of transient surface segregation during annealing is not known, despite its crucial effect on alloy corrosion and catalytic reactions occurring on overlapping timescales. In this work, CuNi bimetallic alloys representing (100) surface facets are annealed in vacuum using atomistic simulations to observe the effect of vacancy diffusion on surface separation. We employ multi-timescale methods to sample the early transient, intermediate, and equilibrium states of slab surfaces during the separation process, including standard MD as well as three methods to perform atomistic, long-time dynamics: parallel trajectory splicing (ParSplice), adaptive kinetic Monte Carlo (AKMC), and kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC). From nanosecond (ns) to second timescales, our multiscale computational methodology can observe rare stochastic events not typically seen with standard MD, closing the gap between computational and experimental timescales for surface segregation. Rapid diffusion of a vacancy to the slab is resolved by all four methods in tens of nanoseconds. Stochastic re-entry of vacancies into the subsurface, however, is only seen on the microsecond timescale in the two KMC methods. Kinetic vacancy trapping on the surface and its effect on the segregation rate are discussed. The equilibrium composition profile of CuNi after segregation during annealing is estimated to occur on a timescale of seconds as determined by KMC, a result directly comparable to nanoscale experiments.

We consider parallel trajectory splicing (ParSplice), a specialized molecular dynamics method that extends simulation timescales through a parallel-in-time strategy, enabling parallel speedups proportional to the number of worker-processes deployed. In practice, the ability for ParSplice to scale significantly improves when it is possible to predict the future evolution of the atomistic trajectory. We propose improved predictive statistical models that are built on-the-fly in order to maximize computational efficiency. By imposing physical constraints and explicitly considering uncertainties in model estimation we show a significant improvement in the scalability of ParSplice, and hence a corresponding increase in the timescales that can be reached by direct simulation.

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