Predictive policing is revolutionizing law enforcement. 1 New place-based predictive analytic technologies allow police to predict where and when a crime might occur. 2 Data-driven insights have been operationalized into concrete decisions about police priorities and resource allocation. 3 In the last few years, place-based predictive policing has spread quickly across the nation, offering police administrators the ability to identify higher crime locations, to restructure patrol routes, and to develop crime suppression strategies based on the new data. 4 This change in strategy has been driven by new technology. Small start-up companies vie with large technology powerhouses to convince police departments that their technology is better, more accurate, or more effective. 5 Vendors sell. Departments buy. Communities react. The focus remains on the technological promise of the different predictive systems. Debates over data inputs or promises about machine learning and "accountable algorithms" obscure the basic strategy question at the heart of all policing: namely, what do we want police to do? This chapter suggests that the debate about technology is better thought about as a choice of policing theory. In other words, when purchasing a particular predictive technology, police should be doing more than simply choosing the most sophisticated predictive model; instead they must fi rst make a decision about the type of policing response that makes sense in their community. Foundational questions about whether we want police offi cers to be agents of social control, civic problem-solvers, or community partners lie at the heart of any choice of which predictive technology might work best for any given jurisdiction. This chapter examines predictive policing technology as a choice about policing theory and how the purchase of a particular predictive tool becomes-intentionally or unintentionally-a statement about police role. 6 Interestingly, these strategic choices map on to existing policing theories. Three of the traditional policing philosophies-hot spot policing , 7 problem-oriented policing , 8 and community-based policing 9 have loose parallels with new place-based predictive policing technologies like PredPol , 10 Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) , 11 and HunchLab. 12 This chapter discusses these leading predictive policing technologies as illustrative examples of how police can choose between prioritizing additional police presence, targeting environmental vulnerabilities, and/ or establishing a community problem-solving approach as a different means of achieving crime reduction. 13 Behind each of these predictive policing theories is the same basic goal-reduce crime through a better understanding of criminal patterns, data, and insights. But Andrew Guthrie Ferguson 492 492 the strategic choice of technology to reach that crime reduction goal deserves more sustained consideration. Fundamental questions of individual dignity, community security, and police relationships are at stake and can be altered by the choice of ...

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