A new technique is derived to invert slickenside data for the stress field that caused the faulting episode. This inversion is simplified by the assumption that the magnitude of the tangential traction on the various fault planes, at the time of rupture, is similar. Study of three normal faulting regimes shows that the inversion derived with this assumption yields results that closely match older inversions that did not include the assumption. Hence the assumption may be valid and is shown to be justified by analyzing a simple fracture criterion. Application of slip data inversions is extended from faulting regimes to the slip on bedding plane faults in folding regimes. Comparison of the inversion results with the geometry of the folds shows this application to be successful, greatly increasing the number of data sets that can be used to find the paleostress field. cipal stress axis is usually close to vertical [Zoback and Zoback, 1980]. Thus when analyzing sparse data sets, this may be a useful constraint because it reduces the number of variables in the inversion. METHOD do this depends on the validity of the assumption that all-of-The basic41atm• and other quantities are shown in Figure the slip events are independent and represent the same stress tensor. Or, in other words, that the stress field is a constant tensor within the region being studied for the duration of the events. Using this assumption, computer-based inversion processes have been developed by several workers [Angelier, 1979; Angelier et al., 1982; Ellsworth and Zhonghuai, 1980; Ellsworth, 1982; Gephart and Forsyth, 1982]. The consistent results obtained suggest that the assumption is a valid approximation. Results from such inversions are of use in understanding the formation of geological structures and their relationship to tectonic forces. This paper represents several advances over the previous work. First, a new simpler inversion process is derived by making an additional assumption: that the magnitude of the tangential traction is similar on the different fault planes at the time of rupture. Application to three data sets representing normal faulting regimes (Angelier's [1979] central Crete data, Thompson and Burke's [1973] Dixie Valley, Nevada, data, and M.L. Zoback's (unpublished data, 1984) Ogden City Reservoir data) are presented. Angelier's [1979] iterative inversion is used for comparison because it was developed for use with slickenside data, while other workers have concentrated on earthquake focal mechanisms. Second, the relative magnitudes of the isotropic and deviatoric stress tensors are investigated by assuming a simple fracture criterion. Third, this paper represents the first attempt to apply this type of inversion to slip data obtained from ductile processes such as folds. To do this, four data sets from bedding plane faults in northern Michigan (D. Larue and C. Ueng, unpublished manuscript, 1984) are analyzed.The new inversion is also modified to constrain one principal stress axis to be vertical and the other two to b...

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP14) present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation and include multifault ruptures, both limitations of UCERF2. The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously and from a broader range of data, using a system-level inversion that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (e.g., magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1440 alternative logic-tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M w ≥ 5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded due to lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (e.g., constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of M 6.5-7 earthquake rates and also includes types of multifault ruptures seen in nature. Although UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements. Manuscript OrganizationBecause of manuscript length and model complexity, we begin with an outline of this report to help readers navigate the various sections:

We present a new three-dimensional (3D) compressional wavespeed (V p) model for the Parkfield region, taking advantage of the recent seismicity associated with the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquake sequences to provide increased model resolution compared to the work of Eberhart-Phillips and Michael (1993) (EPM93). Taking the EPM93 3D model as our starting model, we invert the arrival-time data from about 2100 earthquakes and 250 shots recorded on both permanent network and temporary stations in a region 130 km northeast-southwest by 120 km northwest-southeast. We include catalog picks and cross-correlation and catalog differential times in the inversion, using the double-difference tomography method of Zhang and Thurber (2003). The principal V p features reported by EPM93 and Michelini and McEvilly (1991) are recovered, but with locally improved resolution along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) and near the active-source profiles. We image the previously identified strong wavespeed contrast (faster on the southwest side) across most of the length of the SAF, and we also improve the image of a high V p body on the northeast side of the fault reported by EPM93. This narrow body is at about 5-to 12-km depth and extends approximately from the locked section of the SAF to the town of Parkfield. The footwall of the thrust fault responsible for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake is imaged as a northeast-dipping high wavespeed body. In between, relatively low wavespeeds (Ͻ5 km/sec) extend to as much as 10-km depth. We use this model to derive absolute locations for about 16,000 earthquakes from 1966 to 2005 and high-precision double-difference locations for 9,000 earthquakes from 1984 to 2005, and also to determine focal mechanisms for 446 earthquakes. These earthquake locations and mechanisms show that the seismogenic fault is a simple planar structure. The aftershock sequence of the 2004 mainshock concentrates into the same structures defined by the pre-2004 seismicity, confirming earlier observations (Waldhauser et al., 2004) that the seismicity pattern at Parkfield is long lived and persists through multiple cycles of mainshocks.

[1] We present a new focal mechanism stress inversion technique to produce regionalscale models of stress orientation containing the minimum complexity necessary to fit the data. Current practice is to divide a region into small subareas and to independently fit a stress tensor to the focal mechanisms of each subarea. This procedure may lead to apparent spatial variability that is actually an artifact of overfitting noisy data or nonuniquely fitting data that does not completely constrain the stress tensor. To remove these artifacts while retaining any stress variations that are strongly required by the data, we devise a damped inversion method to simultaneously invert for stress in all subareas while minimizing the difference in stress between adjacent subareas. This method is conceptually similar to other geophysical inverse techniques that incorporate damping, such as seismic tomography. In checkerboard tests, the damped inversion removes the stress rotation artifacts exhibited by an undamped inversion, while resolving sharper true stress rotations than a simple smoothed model or a moving-window inversion. We show an example of a spatially damped stress field for southern California. The methodology can also be used to study temporal stress changes, and an example for the Coalinga, California, aftershock sequence is shown. We recommend use of the damped inversion technique for any study examining spatial or temporal variations in the stress field.

S U M M A R YWe discuss the subsurface structure of the Karadere-Duzce branch of the North Anatolian Fault based on analysis of a large seismic data set recorded by a local PASSCAL network in the 6 months following the M w = 7.4 1999 Izmit earthquake. Seismograms observed at stations located in the immediate vicinity of the rupture zone show motion amplification and long-period oscillations in both P-and S-wave trains that do not exist in nearby off-fault stations. Examination of thousands of waveforms reveals that these characteristics are commonly generated by events that are well outside the fault zone. The anomalous features in fault-zone seismograms produced by events not necessarily in the fault may be referred to generally as fault-zone-related site effects. The oscillatory shear wave trains after the direct S arrival in these seismograms are analysed as trapped waves propagating in a low-velocity fault-zone layer. The time difference between the S arrival and trapped waves group does not grow systematically with increasing source-receiver separation along the fault. These observations imply that the trapping of seismic energy in the Karadere-Duzce rupture zone is generated by a shallow fault-zone layer. Traveltime analysis and synthetic waveform modelling indicate that the depth of the trapping structure is approximately 3-4 km. The synthetic waveform modelling indicates further that the shallow trapping structure has effective waveguide properties consisting of thickness of the order of 100 m, a velocity decrease relative to the surrounding rock of approximately 50 per cent and an S-wave quality factor of 10-15. The results are supported by large 2-D and 3-D parameter space studies and are compatible with recent analyses of trapped waves in a number of other faults and rupture zones. The inferred shallow trapping structure is likely to be a common structural element of fault zones and may correspond to the top part of a flower-type structure. The motion amplification associated with fault-zone-related site effects increases the seismic shaking hazard near fault-zone structures. The effect may be significant since the volume of sources capable of generating motion amplification in shallow trapping structures is large.