Agri-food supply chains in North America have become remarkably efficient, supplying an unprecedented variety of items at the lowest possible cost. However, the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and the near-total temporary loss of the foodservice distribution channel, exposed a vulnerability that many found surprising. Instead of continued shortages, however, the agri-food sector has since moved back to near normal conditions with prices and production levels similar to those typically observed in years prior to the pandemic. Ironically, the specialization in most food supply chains designed for “just-in-time” delivery to specific customers with no reserve capacity, which led to the initial disruptions, may have also been responsible for its rapid rebound. A common theme in assessing the impacts across the six commodities examined is the growing importance of understanding the whole supply chain. Over the longer term, a continuation of the pandemic could push the supply chain toward greater consolidation of firms and diversification of products given the increasing option value of maintaining flexibility. Other structural changes will be felt through input markets, most notably labour, as the trend toward greater automation will continue to accelerate as a response to meeting concerns about a consistent supply of healthy and productive workers. The economic fall out from the pandemic may lead to greater concentration in the sector as some firms are not able to survive the downturn and changes in consumer food buying behaviour, including movement toward online shopping and enhanced demand for attributes associated with resiliency, such as local. On the other hand, online shopping may provide opportunities for small producers and processors to shorten supply chains and reach customers directly. In the long term, COVID-19 impacts on global commerce and developing country production are more uncertain and could influence poverty reduction. While COVID-19's impacts on North American agriculture should have minimal effect on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through food prices, the ongoing global trends in trade and agribusiness accelerated by the pandemic are relevant for achievement of the SDGs.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate dairy farm financial performance over time utilizing farm financial ratios from three university business analysis programs. The evaluation includes measures of profitability, solvency, and liquidity by herd size. Design/methodology/approach Financial ratios to reflect profitability (rate of return on assets), solvency (debt to asset ratio), and liquidity (current ratio) were collected from Cornell University, Michigan State University, and the University of Wisconsin for dairy farms from 2000 to 2012. The distribution of farm financial performance using these ratios was examined over time and by herd size. Variance component methods are used to examine the percent of variation due to individual firm and industry aspects. A simple credit risk score is calculated to examine relative farm risk. Findings Dairy farm profitability performance is similar across herd sizes in poor years but larger herds realized significantly more profitability in good years. Findings were similar with respect to liquidity. Large herds consistently carried relatively more debt. Large herds’ financial performance was more uniform than across smaller herds. Larger herds had more financial risk as measured by credit risk scoring but recovered quickly to industry averages in profitable years. Originality/value The variation of dairy farm financial performance in an era of volatile milk and feed price is assessed. The results have important implications for farm financial management and benchmarking farm financial performance. In addition to helping to evaluate the efficacy of various price and income risk management tools, these results have important implications for understanding the benefits of the new federal Margin Protection Program for Dairy that is available to all US dairy farmers.

Agricultural technology adoption that increases individual firm productivity is generally assumed to improve competitiveness and profitability. However, technology that is adopted by many firms in an industry can shift the basic supply relationship, increasing total production while lowering farm prices. While generally beneficial to consumers, this result can reduce (or completely offset) benefits for farmers, especially late or non-adopters. Our objective is to assess the market dynamics of alternative assumptions about exogenous productivity-enhancing technology adoption by Brazilian dairy farms. Of particular interest is the distributional impact on farm incomes and on the proportion of milk production for different farm size classes. To achieve this objective, we developed an empirical System Dynamics model that evaluates market and farm profitability impacts from 2006 to 2016. We simulated six counterfactual scenarios comprising three rates of adoption (slow, medium and fast) by two farm size categories (small and large). Technology adoption impact differs in the short- and long-term and depending on the assumed rates and farm sizes. Non-adopters of technology can experience lower incomes and a smaller production and income shares when other farms adopt. The underlying causal structure of farm profitability and the herd management decisions suffices to explain the potential market exclusion of non-adopting farms (especially small-scale farms) when others adopt.

The study analyzes the effect of the New York State Milk Price Gouging Law 200% rule (June 1991–October 2008) on the nature of Class I milk price transmission and supermarket pricing strategies in the fluid whole milk market. This rule established that retail prices of fluid milk products higher than 200% of the Class I milk prices were unconscionably excessive. There is empirical evidence suggesting that supermarket whole milk pricing strategies and the nature of Class I milk price transmission tend to be different in the law period as compared to the period prior to the MPGL enforcement. During the pre‐law period, supermarkets used retail price stabilization practice characterized by an incomplete and asymmetric price transmission. During the law period, supermarkets used marketing margin stabilization practice characterized by more than a complete and a much more symmetric price transmission. The institutional environment affected by the interaction of the analyzed regulatory mechanism and the changes taking place in the economic environment (increasing Class I milk price volatility and increasing concentration in the fluid milk processing and supermarket retailing) was likely to cause the observed changes in the supermarket whole milk pricing strategy and Class I milk price transmission process. [EconLit classifications: C33, C34, D12]. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.