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PrefaceThis report is based on a workshop convened by the RAND Corporation in New York City on September 8, 2017, to discuss how to better define, anticipate, and address global trends and discontinuities that could shape the world though the year 2040. Nineteen participants from a wide range of disciplines and professions analyzed continuities and discontinuities from previous eras and anticipated likely or consequential developments in the coming 25 years. Continuities were those trends and events that were unsurprising, even if they occurred at an accelerated pace. Discontinuities, also known as "black swans," are developments that were deemed impossible and thus never considered, yet they proved consequential enough to change history, making a trend line suddenly jump or even disappear. The most consequential continuities cited were that (1) life expectancy in many parts of the world would continue to rise, (2) extreme weather events would increase in frequency, and (3) the advancement of technologies would continue to progress rapidly. The most consequential discontinuities cited were that (1) artificial intelligence could displace a significant portion of the labor force; (2) advanced genomic editing could become a disruptive force; (3) climate change and extreme weather could spark mass migration; and (4) shifts in climate, energy, and demography could alter the international power balance.This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the defense agencies, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. For more information on the RAND ISDP Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the Center director (contact information provided on the web page).
Security 2040This report is part of a broader effort, an initiative of RAND Ventures, to envision critical security challe...
