The investigation of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) in oasis cities in Northwest China is useful for guiding the sustainable development of arid regions. To quantify the WRCC of Shihezi, an oasis city in the Manas River Basin (MRB), Northwest China, a total of 21 indicators from three subsystems were selected to construct an evaluation index system based on the theory of the water resource–socio-economic–ecological complex system. Our study utilized a combination of the CRITIC method and the entropy weight method to determine the synthesis weight, the GRA-TOPSIS approach to comprehensively evaluate the WRCC, and the obstacle degree model to identify its main obstacle factors. Our results showed that the WRCC of Shihezi showed an increasing trend from 2011 to 2020, with the compositive index increasing from 0.3454 to 0.5210. The carrying capacities of the ecological environment and socio-economic subsystems were generally on the rise, but the rate of change was relatively gentle from 2017 to 2020. The carrying capacity index of the water resource subsystem dropped significantly from year to year from 2016 to 2020. The irrigation coverage rate, the proportion of agricultural water, water consumption per 10,000 CNY of GDP, the modulus of water production, water resource development and its utilization ratio, the water supply modulus, and the proportion of ecological water were the seven most significant obstacles. Our findings could serve as scientific references for enhancing WRCC and promoting the sustainable development of oasis cities in arid regions.

Water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) is essential for characterizing the harmony between humans and water resources in an area. Investigation of the WRCC is useful for guiding the sustainable development of a region. The northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is an important area for the economic development of Xinjiang, China. In recent years, the supply of water in the area barely satisfies the demand. To quantitatively evaluate the WRCC, data for four indicators including the water resources, social and economic development, and ecological environment of the area were utilized. The comprehensive weighting method, which combines the entropy and analytic hierarchy processes, was used to assess these indicators. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was employed to evaluate the urban WRCC of the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountain for 2018. The results showed urban WRCC values varying between good and moderate for the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, and this indicates that the study area is in a loadable state. Although the water supply can meet the development of cities on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains to a certain extent at this stage, because it is located in the arid region of western China, the shortage and uneven distribution of water resources are one of the biggest limiting factors for the future development of this region. The findings of the present study provide a basis for the development, rational allocation, and sustainable utilization of urban water resources on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.