PURPOSE We wanted to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule to identify men at risk for osteoporosis and subsequent hip fracture who might benefi t from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). METHODSWe used risk factor data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III to develop a best fi tting multivariable logistic regression model in men aged 50 years and older randomized to either the development (n = 1,497) or validation (n = 1,498) cohorts. The best fi tting model was transformed into a simplifi ed scoring algorithm, the Male Osteoporosis Risk Estimation Score (MORES). We validated the MORES, comparing sensitivity, specifi city, and area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve in the 2 cohorts and assessed clinical utility with an analysis of the number needed-to-screen (NNS) to prevent 1 additional hip fracture. RESULTSThe MORES included 3 variables-age, weight, and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-and showed excellent predictive validity in the validation cohort. A score of 6 or greater yielded an overall sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.85-0.97), a specifi city of 0.59 (95% CI, 0.56-0.62), and an area under the ROC curve of 0.832 (95% CI, 0.807-0.858). The overall NNS to prevent 1 additional hip fracture was 279 in a cohort of men representative of the US population.CONCLUSIONS Osteoporosis is a major predictor of hip fractures. Experts believe bisphosphonate treatment in men should yield results similar to that in women and reduce hip fracture rates associated with osteoporosis. In men aged 60 years and older, the MORES is a simple approach to identify men at risk for osteoporosis and refer them for confi rmatory DXA scans.

Less than 10% of men received bisphosphonate therapy following a low-impact fracture. Men with a primary physician were more likely to receive bisphosphonate therapy; however, <25% of men were seen by a primary physician.

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Background: Vertebral fracture, one of the most frequent osteoporotic fractures in both sexes, is a powerful indicator of future osteoporotic fractures. Vertebral fractures are associated with increased mortality and decreased quality of life. Osteoporosis is a major predictor of low-trauma fracture. The Male Osteoporosis Risk Estimation Score (MORES), a clinical prediction tool that uses age, weight, and a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, was developed and validated previously to identify men at risk for hip osteoporosis who might benefit from bone densitometry. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the MORES to identify men at risk of lumbar osteoporosis.Methods

The performance of the ORAI and SCORE instrument differed significantly from previous reports. Although both can reduce the use of DXA scans for screening for osteoporosis, lower sensitivities resulted in underrecognition of osteoporosis and may limit their clinical usefulness in an ethnically diverse population.