The paper compares two alternative techniques for the modelling of the determinants of sovereign ratings, specifically, ordered probit and case-based reasoning. Despite the differences in approach the two alternative modelling approaches produce similar results in terms of which variables are significant and forecast accuracy. This suggests that either approach can be used, and that there is some robustness in the results. As regards significant variables, both models find that a proxy for technological development, specifically, mobile phone use, is the most important variable. Apart from the technology proxy, a range of conventional macroeconomic variables are found to be significant, in particular GDP and inflation. The models are then used to produce forecasts for 2002 and for a set of unrated countries. The forecast comparison indicates the critical role played by the technology proxy variable in the modelling. JEL Codes: G15

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Case-based reasoning (CBR) is a problem-solving paradigm that uses past experiences to solve new problems. Nearest neighbor is a common CBR algorithm for retrieving similar cases, whose similarity function is sensitive to irrelevant attributes. Taking the relevancy of the attributes into account can reduce this sensitivity, leading to a more effective retrieval of similar cases. In this paper, statistical evaluation is used for assigning relative importance of the attributes. This approach is applied to predict business failures in Australia using financial data. The results in this study indicate it is an effective and competitive alternative to predict business failures in a comprehensible manner. This study also investigates the usefulness of non-financial data derived from auditor's and directors' reports for business failure prediction. The results suggest that the particular non-financial attributes identified are not as effective as the financial attributes in explaining business failures.