Traditional network management systems are not usually able to differentiate between mobility and other causes of communication degradation in wireless mobile ad hoc networks. A fault management system needs the ability to not only detect changes in performance but also reason about their possible causes and how to fix the problems. We propose a system called TimeSAFE (Time Series Analyzer Front End) that performs time series analysis as a front end input to a central fault management system. We show how such an analysis can help to distinguish between motion, obstacles, and interference as possible causes of changes in SINR (Signal to Interference and Noise Ratio). We propose three different methods of time series analysis and also methods for dynamic order selection and dynamic window selection. We describe our implementation of TimeSAFE and provide some preliminary results of detecting changes in SINR and identifying their causes.

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