Since the reinfestation of South American countries by Ae. aegypti, dengue fever (DF)

The distribution of Aedes aegypti (L) (Diptera: Culicidae) oviposition in Buenos Aires City is spatially heterogeneous. Oviposition activity was monitored for a year with a grid of 279 traps at 850-m intervals that were serviced weekly. Geostatistics were used for the spatial analysis and generalized linear regression to model oviposition as a function of demographic and environmental variables. The proportion of weeks infested and the total number of eggs showed spatial continuity and were higher in areas that had higher densities of houses and were closer to industrial sites; they were lower in areas with higher human populations or higher densities of flats. When all sites were considered, the spatial structure showed a strong trend, but after regression, the residuals presented lower spatial dependence. When only infested sites were considered, the oviposition variables were spatially autocorrelated and the regression residuals showed little or no spatial dependence. The spatial pattern of Ae. aegypti oviposition in a highly urbanized city such as Buenos Aires seems to be related to the urbanization gradient. These urban environments might present different resource availability or continuity between patches of resources.

SummaryDengue is an emerging disease that has become important in Argentina because of its vector's presence (Aedes aegypti) and its endemicity in neighbouring countries. Thematic maps were built for Argentina considering four main factors: population susceptibility to dengue virus infection (population density); entrance of the virus from endemic countries (main roads and airports); conditions for the vector (urbanization, altitude, minimum, maximum and mean daily temperatures) and virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP) completion in the mosquito before its death. EIP duration was modelled with a temperature-dependent function and considering life expectancies of 10, 15 and 20 days for the adult mosquito. The results show maximum risk of dengue transmission in the northern and north-eastern part of the country year-round and in the centre during the summer. Although life expectancy of the adult mosquito has a considerable in¯uence on EIP completion, the north-east to south-west decreasing gradient is maintained. Assuming 20-day life expectancy, the EIP would be completed in almost any region of the country; whereas with 15-day life expectancy it would be limited to vector distribution area, and at 10 days it would be restricted to the northern extreme of the country.

BackgroundDengue cases have increased during the last decades, particularly in non-endemic areas, and Argentina was no exception in the southern transmission fringe. Although temperature rise has been blamed for this, human population growth, increased travel and inefficient vector control may also be implicated. The relative contribution of geographic, demographic and climatic of variables on the occurrence of dengue cases was evaluated.MethodsAccording to dengue history in the country, the study was divided in two decades, a first decade corresponding to the reemergence of the disease and the second including several epidemics. Annual dengue risk was modeled by a temperature-based mechanistic model as annual days of possible transmission. The spatial distribution of dengue occurrence was modeled as a function of the output of the mechanistic model, climatic, geographic and demographic variables for both decades.ResultsAccording to the temperature-based model dengue risk increased between the two decades, and epidemics of the last decade coincided with high annual risk. Dengue spatial occurrence was best modeled by a combination of climatic, demographic and geographic variables and province as a grouping factor. It was positively associated with days of possible transmission, human population number, population fall and distance to water bodies. When considered separately, the classification performance of demographic variables was higher than that of climatic and geographic variables.ConclusionsTemperature, though useful to estimate annual transmission risk, does not fully describe the distribution of dengue occurrence at the country scale. Indeed, when taken separately, climatic variables performed worse than geographic or demographic variables. A combination of the three types was best for this task.