Consumers' attitudes about the direction of the economy influence their decisions about discretionary purchases, saving, and investment. This paper uses data from Florida's consumer sentiment index to study the role and accuracy of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption, as well as the mechanism behind such a relationship. Spending on durable goods tends to be more discretionary in nature and it is frequently done using credit, thus potentially more sensitive to changes in consumer attitudes. Our results indicate that the in‐sample predictive power of the index and its questions is limited to predicting spending on durable goods, particularly, on autos. Furthermore, consumer confidence does not improve the out‐of‐sample forecast beyond the forecast from a baseline model, which considers economic fundamentals. Finally, the evidence shows that the relationship between shocks in consumer confidence and economic activity arises because confidence measures contain information about the state of the economy, thus rejecting animal spirits.

In 2020, an antitrust lawsuit was filed against the Pork Integrators alleging a §1 Sherman Act violation. At the center of the Lawsuit, there is an alleged exchange of atomistic information about the Pork integrators’ operations using Agri Stats, Inc. as a clearinghouse. We use the Supreme Court benchmark in American Column & Lumber to discuss two questions that arise from the Lawsuit. The first is whether the association of Pork Integrators and Agri Stats, Inc., resulted in the restraint of interstate commerce, the main specific issue at stake in the pork Lawsuit. The second is whether information-exchange agreements using clearinghouses like Agri Stats, Inc., lessen competition and offend U.S. antitrust law, a more general issue beyond the pork Lawsuit. We find that there appears to be ample evidence in the Lawsuit to merit prosecution regarding both trade restraints and information-sharing agreements. We conclude by discussing the role of the Agencies in setting the standards in information-exchange agreements.

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