Expectation, or prediction, has become a major theme in cognitive science. Music offers a powerful system for studying how expectations are formed and deployed in the processing of richly structured sequences that unfold rapidly in time. We ask to what extent expectations about an upcoming note in a melody are driven by two distinct factors: Gestalt-like principles grounded in the auditory system (e.g. a preference for subsequent notes to move in small intervals), and statistical learning of melodic structure. We use multinomial regression

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