The threat of terrorism is increasingly relevant to tourism on a global scale, and no destination can claim exemption. Tourism managers need to be aware of the impact that past, current, and future terrorism events have on tourist behavior. The aim of this research is to further our understanding as to how terrorism advisory information impacts tourists’ preferences for, and trade-offs between, specific aspects of their travel. The research uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE) embedded within a classic between-subjects experimental design. US-based respondents (n = 424) completed the experiment. A random parameter logit (RPL) model is calculated to understand how tourists’ preference structures change as the threat of terrorism intensifies taking into account travel knowledge, sensation seeking, and demographic factors. Results suggest that tourist’s travel choices in relation to accommodation, independent versus group travel, cancellation policy, and price vary significantly as the threat of terrorism increases.

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This paper contributes to our understanding of individual decision making by testing the proposal that differential weighting of 2 (or more) goals can be an important factor leading to stochastic (probabilistic) choice. The tested models follow from the endogenous maximum entropy program (eMEP) paradigm (Swait & Marley, 2013), which proposes that stochastic choice is (partially or entirely) a consequence of balancing multiple goals. That framework leads to an interpretation of the scale factor in classic random utility models (such as the multinomial logit [MNL]) as an endogenous property of a decision maker—an interpretation that is in stark contrast to the standard interpretation of the scale as due to heterogeneity or other “noise.” The new perspective is supported by data from a task that manipulates (by a prime) an individual’s propensity to be either consistent or to seek variety, suggesting that balanced pursuit of exploitation and exploration goals is a reasonable interpretation of stochastic choice.

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