Objective Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a substantial heritable component. Common genetic variation has been shown to contribute to CRC risk. In a large, multi-population study, we set out to assess the feasibility of CRC risk prediction using common genetic variant data, combined with other risk factors. We built a risk prediction model and applied it to the Scottish population using available data. Design Nine populations of European descent were studied to develop and validate colorectal cancer risk prediction models. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the combined effect of age, gender, family history (FH) and genotypes at 10 susceptibility loci that individually only modestly influence colorectal cancer risk. Risk models were generated from case-control data incorporating genotypes alone (n=39,266), and in combination with gender, age and family history (n=11,324). Model discriminatory performance was assessed using 10-fold internal cross-validation and externally using 4,187 independent samples. 10-year absolute risk was estimated by modelling genotype and FH with age- and gender-specific population risks. Results Median number of risk alleles was greater in cases than controls (10 vs 9, p<2.2×10−16), confirmed in external validation sets (Sweden p=1.2×10−6, Finland p=2×10−5). Mean per-allele increase in risk was 9% (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.05–1.13). Discriminative performance was poor across the risk spectrum (area under curve (AUC) for genotypes alone - 0.57; AUC for genotype/age/gender/FH - 0.59). However, modelling genotype data, FH, age and gender with Scottish population data shows the practicalities of identifying a subgroup with >5% predicted 10-year absolute risk. Conclusion We show that genotype data provides additional information that complements age, gender and FH as risk factors. However, individualized genetic risk prediction is not currently feasible. Nonetheless, the modelling exercise suggests public health potential, since it is possible to stratify the population into CRC risk categories, thereby informing targeted prevention and surveillance.

Aberrant activation of WNT signalling and loss of BMP signals represent the two main alterations leading to the initiation of colorectal cancer (CRC). Here we screen for genes required for maintaining the tumour stem cell phenotype and identify the zinc-finger transcription factor GATA6 as a key regulator of the WNT and BMP pathways in CRC. GATA6 directly drives the expression of LGR5 in adenoma stem cells whereas it restricts BMP signalling to differentiated tumour cells. Genetic deletion of Gata6 from mouse colon adenomas increases the levels of BMP factors, which signal to block self-renewal of tumour stem cells. In human tumours, GATA6 competes with β-catenin/TCF4 for binding to a distal regulatory region of the BMP4 locus that has been linked to increased susceptibility to development of CRC. Hence, GATA6 creates an environment permissive for CRC initiation by lowering the threshold of BMP signalling required for tumour stem cell expansion.

Purpose:Colorectal cancer is an important cause of mortality in the developed world. Hereditary forms are due to germ-line mutations in APC, MUTYH, and the mismatch repair genes, but many cases present familial aggregation but an unknown inherited cause. The hypothesis of rare high-penetrance mutations in new genes is a likely explanation for the underlying predisposition in some of these familial cases.Methods:Exome sequencing was performed in 43 patients with colorectal cancer from 29 families with strong disease aggregation without mutations in known hereditary colorectal cancer genes. Data analysis selected only very rare variants (0–0.1%), producing a putative loss of function and located in genes with a role compatible with cancer. Variants in genes previously involved in hereditary colorectal cancer or nearby previous colorectal cancer genome-wide association study hits were also chosen.Results:Twenty-eight final candidate variants were selected and validated by Sanger sequencing. Correct family segregation and somatic studies were used to categorize the most interesting variants in CDKN1B, XRCC4, EPHX1, NFKBIZ, SMARCA4, and BARD1.Conclusion:We identified new potential colorectal cancer predisposition variants in genes that have a role in cancer predisposition and are involved in DNA repair and the cell cycle, which supports their putative involvement in germ-line predisposition to this neoplasm.

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