<p>Human activities have a profound impact on climate and hydrological processes, contributing to changes in the frequency and severity of hydrological extremes and, consequently, growing socioeconomic vulnerability [1]. Rising sea levels, continuous urban development in low-lying coastal areas, and corresponding changes in flood risk have resulted in devastating flood impacts. Different Flood Risk Management (FRM) strategies have been adopted in various socioeconomic contexts and spatiotemporal scales, the most prevalent being structural protection. In recent years, numerous scholars have raised concerns about this approach, as studies have shown that increasing protection levels can increase socioeconomic vulnerabilities e.g., [2]. FRM strategies alter the dynamics of risk manifested in sociohydrological systems, which must be disentangled to avoid unintended consequences.<br />In the “Cities and rising sea levels” project, scientists from different research disciplines, including hydrology, architecture, landscape architecture, and urban planning, collaborate to tackle these challenges. Combining multidisciplinary knowledge has been central to exploring the cross-sectoral processes involved in FRM. In the present study, we focused on (1) uncovering the cascading effects, including unintended consequences of FRM, as well as (2) highlighting the potentials for holistic assessments of FRM strategies.<br />Our methods include the development of a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) model describing critical sociohydrological processes of coastal cities operating at different spatial and temporal scales. We identified dynamic feedbacks between (1) flood risk, urban development and economic wealth, (2) flood risk, urban development and social equity, and (3) flood risk, trust in authorities, and institutional capacity, among others. . Based on the CLD, we analyzed key feedback mechanisms and their manifestation in theory and practice. Further, we explored the impacts of different FRM strategies on these feedback mechanisms to uncover differences in impacts on socioeconomic vulnerabilities and wider cross-sectoral impacts. The presentation will present and explore the conceptual model through semiquantitative analyses (Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs)) and spatiotemporal assessments using a specific case study. We aim at (1) getting case-specific insights into the dynamics produced by the local interplay of flooding events and socioeconomic processes influencing vulnerabilities, and (2) suggesting pathways for new integrated ways of FRM.</p> <p><strong>References</strong><br />[1] IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. In Press., 2022.<br />[2] R. W. Kates, C. E. Colten, S. Laska, and S. P. Leatherman, “Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A research perspective,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., vol. 103, no. 40, pp. 14653–14660, Oct. 2006, doi: 10.1073/PNAS.0605726103/ASSET/C486E9DB-5923-43C0-9881-2B57734F2A7C/ASSETS/GRAPHIC/ZPQ0410637570002.JPEG.</p>

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<p>Denmark is one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe with respect to increasing risk of sea surges. A two hundred year paradigm of land reclamation close to the sea must therefore be revisited with the intent of retaining flexibility and avoiding lock-ins while recognizing the unintended consequences of new adaptation strategies. Potential solutions continue to face considerable structural, spatial, temporal and definitional challenges requiring collaboration between communities, local actors and scientists. In the “Cities and rising sea levels” project scientists from different research disciplines including (landscape) architecture, regional and local planning, and hydrology collaborate with local actors in order to tackle these challenges. The aim is to establish a common terminology and identify common scenarios, strategies, and indicators of successful and less successful urban developments in coastal areas over space and time.</p><p> </p><p>One of the objectives in the project is to establish a coherent, spatially explicit framework for assessing strategies for sustainable urban development (SUD) of coastal communities to facilitate mediation and decision-making for stakeholders involved in adaptation and urban planning processes. As a starting point, our study identified a total of >2200 indicators across 50 references on SUD and respective additional >1600 indicators across 28 references on coastal adaptation. By means of systemic reviews and analyses, the study builds upon previous reviews on indicators and expands beyond by laying a clear focus on sustainable adaptation in coastal areas.</p><p> </p><p>Extracted indicators sets of SUD and coastal adaptation are compared and similarities as well as differences are pointed out and analysed. Interestingly none of the identified indicators of SUD include a direct representation of climate risks or determinants of risk i.e. vulnerability and exposure, neither as conceptual variables driving risk, nor the assessment of adaptive capacity. At the same time, indicators of coastal adaptation disregard liveability and human wellbeing as crucial aspects of urban planning, in contrast to SUD indicators where they represent guiding principles. This illustrates a clear gap between adaptation practices and other professions involved in urban planning processes.</p><p> </p><p>In order to uncover sustainable pathways to adapt, adaptation must be an integral part of sustainable development. The study aims at understanding differences in performance assessments and to suggest steps forward to better integrate SUD and coastal adaptation. Here, the study will proceed by operationalizing a combined and integrated indicator framework in the form of spatio-temporal assessments. The first results of these assessments will be presented and synergies and tradeoffs between a risk lens and SUD will be highlighted.</p>