Single deranged physiologic parameters at admission are associated with mortality in a critically ill population in a low-income country. As a measure of illness severity, single deranged physiologic parameters are as useful as a compound scoring system in this setting and could be termed "danger signs." Danger signs may be suitable for the basis of routines to identify and treat critically ill patients.

PurposeTo develop an instrument for use at ICU discharge for prediction of psychological problems in ICU survivors.MethodsMultinational, prospective cohort study in ten general ICUs in secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands. Adult patients with an ICU stay ≥ 12 h were eligible for inclusion. Patients in need of neurointensive care, with documented cognitive impairment, unable to communicate in the local language, without a home address or with more than one limitation of therapy were excluded. Primary outcome was psychological morbidity 3 months after ICU discharge, defined as Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) subscale score ≥ 11 or Post-traumatic Stress Symptoms Checklist-14 (PTSS-14) part B score > 45.ResultsA total of 572 patients were included and 78% of patients alive at follow-up responded to questionnaires. Twenty percent were classified as having psychological problems post-ICU. Of 18 potential risk factors, four were included in the final prediction model after multivariable logistic regression analysis: symptoms of depression [odds ratio (OR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10–1.50], traumatic memories (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.13–1.82), lack of social support (OR 3.28, 95% CI 1.47–7.32) and age (age-dependent OR, peak risk at age 49–65 years). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) for the instrument was 0.76 (95% CI 0.70–0.81).ConclusionsWe developed an instrument to predict individual patients’ risk for psychological problems 3 months post-ICU, http://www.imm.ki.se/biostatistics/calculators/psychmorb/. The instrument can be used for triage of patients for psychological ICU follow-up.Trial registrationThe study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02679157.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s00134-018-5467-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundA majority of patients survive their episode of critical illness but up to 30% of patients suffer from psychological problems such as post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression in the year after intensive care unit (ICU) stay. A method to identify discharged patients at risk for adverse psychological outcome would be helpful in the triage for ICU follow-up and could enable early intervention. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether early screening with validated questionnaires after ICU discharge can identify patients at risk for symptoms of post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression 3 months after ICU stay.MethodsWe performed a prospective observational cohort study in the general ICU at the Karolinska University Hospital Solna, Stockholm, Sweden. All adult patients surviving ≥ 24 hours in the ICU in a 9-month period were eligible for inclusion. Patients with mental disability, serious auditory and visual disorder, aphasia or who were unable to understand Swedish were excluded. One hundred and thirty-two patients were included and visited by a follow-up nurse within 1 week after ICU discharge. The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms Checklist-10 (PTSS-10) were administered. Three months after ICU discharge the patients received the same questionnaires by postal mail. We assessed the predictive values of the questionnaires using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). For correlation calculations, we used Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Negative and positive predictive values for each questionnaire were calculated.ResultsEighty-two patients returned the follow-up questionnaires. We found correlation between early and late scores and reasonable predictive precision regarding 3-month outcomes, with an AUROC of 0.90 for PTSS-10 part B, 0.80 for the HADS anxiety subscale and 0.75 for the HADS depression subscale.ConclusionsSymptoms of post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression assessed 1 week after ICU stay correlate with 3-month psychological outcome. The HADS and PTSS-10 may be useful aids to identify ICU survivors at high risk for clinically significant symptoms of post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression 3 months post ICU stay.