Given scientific and technological advancements, expectations of online medical education are increasing. However, there is no way to predict the effectiveness of online clinical clerkship curricula. To develop a prediction model, we conducted cross-sectional national surveys in Japan. Social media surveys were conducted among medical students in Japan during the periods May–June 2020 and February–March 2021. We used the former for the derivation dataset and the latter for the validation dataset. We asked students questions in three areas: 1) opportunities to learn from each educational approach (lectures, medical quizzes, assignments, oral presentations, observation of physicians’ practice, clinical skills practice, participation in interprofessional meetings, and interactive discussions with physicians) in online clinical clerkships compared to face-to-face, 2) frequency of technical problems on online platforms, and 3) satisfaction and motivation as outcome measurements. We developed a scoring system based on a multivariate prediction model for satisfaction and motivation in a cross-sectional study of 1,671 medical students during the period May–June 2020. We externally validated this scoring with a cross-sectional study of 106 medical students during February–March 2021 and assessed its predictive performance. The final prediction models in the derivation dataset included eight variables (frequency of lectures, medical quizzes, oral presentations, observation of physicians’ practice, clinical skills practice, participation in interprofessional meetings, interactive discussions with physicians, and technical problems). We applied the prediction models created using the derivation dataset to a validation dataset. The prediction performance values, based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, were 0.69 for satisfaction (sensitivity, 0.50; specificity, 0.89) and 0.75 for motivation (sensitivity, 0.71; specificity, 0.85). We developed a prediction model for the effectiveness of the online clinical clerkship curriculum, based on students’ satisfaction and motivation. Our model will accurately predict and improve the online clinical clerkship curriculum effectiveness.

Objective This cross-sectional national study determined which educational approaches are associated with the effectiveness of online clerkship for medical students. Method A survey was conducted for medical students at 78 medical schools in Japan from May 29 to June 14, 2020. It comprised the following aspects: (a) participants' profiles, (b) number of opportunities to learn from each educational approach (lecture, medical quiz, assignment, oral presentation, observation of a physician's practice, clinical skill practice, participation in interprofessional meetings, and interactive discussions with physicians) in online clerkship, (c) frequency of technical problems, and (d) educational outcome measurement (satisfaction, motivation, knowledge acquisition, skill acquisition, change in self-study time, and understanding of the importance of medical care team). Results Of the 2,640 respondents, 2,594 (98.3%) agreed to cooperate. Ultimately, 1,711 matched our inclusion criteria. All educational approaches but assignments were positively associated with satisfaction and motivation. All educational approaches excluding assignment submission and interprofessional meeting were positively associated with knowledge acquisition. Observation, practice, and interprofessional meeting were positively associated with skill acquisition. Only assignment submission was positively associated with the change in self-study time. Educational approaches excluding medical quizzes were positively associated with understanding the importance of the medical care team. Technical problems were negatively associated with motivation, knowledge acquisition, and skill acquisition. Conclusions Educators should implement various educational approaches, especially observation and practice, even in online clinical clerkship. They also need to minimize the technical problems associated with the Internet, as they reduce the effectiveness of online clerkship.