This paper draws on the sequential coin toss gamble, used in the St. Petersburg paradox, to model investments with long-tailed risks– those that result in very rare but huge losses. It applies the model to the depository institutions’ assets with long-tail risk, where depositors serve as guarantors of tail risk, and also to other investments with long-tails, such as collateralized debt obligations. The model simulates the financial institutions risk taking behavior, where agents with limited liability are able to shift their tail risk onto external parties who have either imperfect information or act with disaster myopia (i.e. “too big to fail” scenario). A simulation shows that such self-interested agents benefit by increasing leverage and increasing the chance of bankruptcy.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.