The Mediterranean storm track constitutes a well-defined branch of the North Hemisphere storm track and is characterised by small but intense features and frequent cyclogenesis. The goal of this study is to assess the level of consensus among cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs), to identify robust features and to explore sources of disagreement. A set of 14 CDTMs has been applied for computing the climatology of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region using the ERA-Interim dataset for the period 1979Á2008 as common testbed. Results show large differences in actual cyclone numbers identified by different methods, but a good level of consensus on the interpretation of results regarding location, annual cycle and trends of cyclone tracks. Cyclogenesis areas such as the northwestern Mediterranean, North Africa, north shore of the Levantine basin, as well as the seasonality of their maxima are robust features on which methods show a substantial agreement. Differences among methods are greatly reduced if cyclone numbers are transformed to a dimensionless index, which, in spite of disagreement on mean values and interannual variances of cyclone numbers, reveals a consensus on variability, sign and significance of trends. Further, excluding 'weak' and 'slow' cyclones from the computation of cyclone statistics improves the agreement among CDTMs. Results show significant negative trends of cyclone frequency in spring and positive trends in summer, whose contrasting effects compensate each other at annual scale, so that there is no significant long-term trend in total cyclone numbers in the Mediterranean basin in the 1979Á2008 period.
The region of Apulia, which is located in the south-east tip of the Italian Peninsula, has a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot-dry summers. Agriculture, an important sector of its economy, is potentially threatened by future climate change. This study describes the evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation from the recent past to the next decades and estimates future potential impacts of climate change on three main agricultural products: wine, wheat and olives. Analysis is based on instrumental data, on an ensemble of climate projections and on a linear regression model linking these three agricultural products to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. In Apulia, precipitation and temperature time series show trends toward warmer and marginally drier conditions during the whole analyzed (1951–2005) period: 0.18 °C/decade in mean annual minimum temperature and −14.9 mm/decade in the annual total precipitation. Temperature trends have been progressively increasing and rates of change have become noticeably more intense during the last 25 years of the twentieth century. Model simulations are consistent with observed trends for the period 1951–2000 and show a large acceleration of the warming rate in the period 2001–2050 with respect to the period 1951–2000. Further, in the period 2001–2050, simulations show a decrease in precipitation, which was not present in the previous 50 years. Wine production, wheat and olive harvest records show large inter-annual variability with statistically significant links to seasonal temperature and precipitation, whose strength, however, strongly depends on the considered variables. Linear regression analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation variability explains a small, but not negligible, fraction of the inter-annual variability of these crops (40, 18, 9 % for wine, olives and wheat, respectively). Results (which consider no adaptation of crops and no fertilization effect of CO2) suggest that evolution of these seasonal climate variables in the first half of the twenty-first century could decrease all considered variables. The most affected is wine production (−20 ÷ −26 %). The effect is relevant also on harvested olives (−8 ÷ −19 %) and negligible on harvested wheat (−4 ÷ −1 %)
Air quality data from a network of 11 monitoring stations in the Apulia region of southern Italy during the summer of 2005 reveal a high frequency of ozone law limit violations. Since ozone is a secondary pollutant, air quality control strategies aimed at reducing ozone concentration are not immediate. Herein, we analyse weekly changes in concentration levels of ozone (O(3)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and evaluate how the differences in primary emissions cause changes in the production of ozone. The comparison between weekend and weekday levels of O(3) and its precursors are direct evidence for the existence of the "ozone weekend effect." This effect was observed at all stations with a considerable variation in the overall ozone magnitude, including both traffic stations and non-traffic stations. Data from VOC measurements at traffic stations primarily indicated elevated levels of benzene, toluene, and xylenes (BTX); all of these substances showed an overall decrease over the weekend. A single station indicated levels of non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) and PM10, both of which did not demonstrate any weekly cycle. Analysis of weekly and diurnal cycles of O(3), NO(x), CO, NMHC, and PM10 indicates that higher weekend ozone levels result from a reduction in the emission of nitrogen oxides on weekends in VOC-sensitive regimes. This indicates that a reduction in VOC and NO(x) levels would be more effective than NO(x) reduction alone. Our results underscore the need for improved and more efficient VOC measurements.
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