Populationsof northern sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the vicinity of Marmot Island, Alaska declined during 1975Alaska declined during -1985 at about 5% per year . The cause of this decline is not known. A life table for the northern sea lion was calculated assuming that life spans follow a Weibull distribution. Samples of northern sea lions taken in the vicinity of Marmot Island, Alaska during 1975Alaska during -1978Alaska during and 1985Alaska during -1986 indicate that the average age of females older than 3 yr increased about 1.55 yr (SD = 0.35 yr) while the population was declining at about 5% per year. Fecundity rates decreased by 10% over the same period, but the decrease was not statistically significant (Calkins and Goodwin 1988). Possible causes of the population decline and the change in age structure were examined by writing the Leslie matrix population equation in terms of changes in juvenile and adult survival rates and fecundity, and examining the short-term behavior of the trajectories of the average age of adult females, total number of females, and total number of pups with respect to those changes in the vital parameters. From the observed rate of declines of adults and the changes in average age of adult females and fecundity, estimates of the changes in adult and juvenile survival were calculated; estimates of the standard deviations of these changes were estimated via a bootstrap procedure. One purpose of this exercise is to aid in setting priorities for research for determining the cause of the decline. An explanation for the observed declines in numbers of adult sea lions consistent with the observed fecundity rates, a rate of decrease of 5% in the number of adults, and the corresponding increase in average age (of females age 3 yr and older) was a lo%-20% decrease in the survival of juveniles (age O-3 yr) coupled with an insignificant change in adult survival (0.03%, SD = 1%).

Since the mid-1970s, the western Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), inhabiting Alaskan waters from Prince William Sound west through the Aleutian Islands, has declined by over 80%. Changing oceanographic conditions, competition from fishing operations, direct human-related mortality, and predators have been suggested as factors driving the decline, but the indirect and interactive nature of their effects on sea lions have made it difficult to attribute changes in abundance to specific factors. In part, this is because only changes in abundance, not changes in vital rates, are known. To determine how vital rates of the western Steller sea lion have changed during its 28-year decline, we first estimated the changes in Steller sea lion age structure using measurements of animals in aerial photographs taken during population surveys since 1985 in the central Gulf of Alaska (CGOA). We then fit an age-structured model with temporally varying vital rates to the age-structure data and to total population and pup counts. The model fits indicate that birth rate in the CGOA steadily declined from 1976 to 2004. Over the same period, survivorship first dropped severely in the early 1980s, when the population collapsed, and then survivorship steadily recovered. The best-fitting model indicates that in 2004, the birth rate in the central Gulf of Alaska was 36% lower than in the 1970s, while adult and juvenile survivorship were close to or slightly above 1970s levels. These predictions and other model predictions concerning population structure match independent field data from mark-recapture studies and photometric analyses. The dominant eigenvalue for the estimated 2004 Leslie matrix is 1.0014, indicating a stable population. The stability, however, depends on very high adult survival, and the shift in vital rates results in a population that is more sensitive to changes in adult survivorship. Although our modeling analysis focused exclusively on the central Gulf of Alaska, the western Gulf of Alaska and eastern Aleutians show a similar pattern of declining pup fraction with no increase in the juvenile, or pre-breeding, fraction. This suggests that declining birth rate may be a problem for western Steller sea lions across the Gulf of Alaska and into the Aleutian Islands.

A delayed response to change is often a characteristic of long-lived species and presents a major challenge to monitoring their status. However, rapid shifts in age structure can occur even while population size remains relatively static. We used time-varying matrix models to study age-structure information as a tool for improving detection of survivorship and fecundity change and status. We applied the methods to Steller sea lions ( Eumetopias jubatus), a long-lived endangered marine mammal found throughout the North Pacific Rim. Population and newborn counts were supplemented with information on the fraction of the population that was juvenile, obtained by measuring animals in aerial photographs taken during range-wide censuses. By fitting the model to 1976-1998 data, we obtained maximum-likelihood estimates and 95% confidence intervals for juvenile survivorship, adult survivorship, and adult fecundity in the mid-1980s, late 1980s, and 1990s. We used a series of nested models to test whether the data were best fit by a model with one, two, or three temporal changes in demographic rates, and we fit the models to different lengths of data to test the number of years of data needed to detect a demographic change. The declines in the early 1980s were associated with severely low juvenile survivorship, whereas declines in the 1990s were associated with disproportionately low fecundity. We repeated these analyses, fitting only to the count data without the juvenile-fraction information, to determine whether the age-structure information changed the conclusions and/or changed the certainty and speed with which demographic-rate changes could be detected. The juvenile-fraction data substantially improved the degree to which estimates from the model were consistent with field data and significantly improved the speed and certainty with which changes in demographic rates were detected.Utilización de la Estructura de Edades para Detectar Impactos en Poblaciones Amenazadas: Un Estudio de Caso con Lobo Marinos de Steller Resumen: Una respuesta diferida al cambio a menudo es una característica de especies longevas y presenta un reto mayor para el seguimiento de su condición. Sin embargo, pueden ocurrir cambios rápidos en la estructura de edades aun cuando la población permanece relativamente estática. Utilizamos modelos matriciales con variación de tiempo para estudiar información sobre la estructura de edades como una herramienta para mejorar la detección de cambio y condición de supervivencia y fecundidad. Aplicamos los métodos a los lobo marinos de Steller (Eumetopias jubatus), un mamífero longevo en peligro de extinción que se encuentra en las costas del Pacífico Norte. Los conteos de población y de recién nacidos fueron suplementados con información sobre la fracción de la población que era juvenil, obtenida de medir animales en fotografías aéreas tomadas durante censos en toda elárea de distribución. Ajustando el modelo para datos de 1976-1998, obtuvimos estimaciones de la máxima probabilidad de supervivencia de juveni...

The population sizes, trends, exploitation, and life history parameters for the ten fur seal species and subspecies are summarized. The largest population is that of Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus with approximately two million seals, and the smallest is A. townsendi with approximately 7,000 individuals. Most populations are legally protected, although controlled harvesting may occur. None of the fur seal populations is currently known to be decreasing. Data are presented for parameters related to the survival of pups, juveniles, adults, and territorial males, and to reproduction, including the age of attainment of territorial status, aggregation sizes, age of first parturition, pregnancy rates, sex ratios of young animals, and information on the birth seasons of the different species. Since pinnipeds are often of concern in fisheries management, their daily consumption rates are of importance, and consequently data on body masses are summarized and the paucity of data on consumption rates as a function of body mass noted. A simplified age‐structured model is developed, and the results of this model are compared with results from more detailed models based on two published life tables for Callorhinus ursinus. This comparison shows that the use of the simplified age‐structured model is justified to explore changes in population growth rate. However, the simplified model does show exaggerated age structure effects compared to the more detailed models. This model is used to compare the population dynamics of those species for which sufficient data are available. Areas in which limited, or no, data are available for the different fur seal species are highlighted.