The risk determinants of type 1 diabetes, initiators of autoimmune response, mechanisms regulating progress toward ␤ cell failure, and factors determining time of presentation of clinical diabetes are poorly understood. We investigated changes in the serum metabolome prospectively in children who later progressed to type 1 diabetes. Serum metabolite profi les were compared between sample series drawn from 56 children who progressed to type 1 diabetes and 73 controls who remained nondiabetic and permanently autoantibody negative. Individuals who developed diabetes had reduced serum levels of succinic acid and phosphatidylcholine (PC) at birth, reduced levels of triglycerides and antioxidant ether phospholipids throughout the follow up, and increased levels of proinfl ammatory lysoPCs several months before seroconversion to autoantibody positivity. The lipid changes were not attributable to HLA-associated genetic risk. The appearance of insulin and glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies was preceded by diminished ketoleucine and elevated glutamic acid. The metabolic profi le was partially normalized after the seroconversion. Autoimmunity may thus be a relatively late response to the early metabolic disturbances. Recognition of these preautoimmune alterations may aid in studies of disease pathogenesis and may open a time window for novel type 1 diabetes prevention strategies.

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OBJECTIVEAs data on the predictive characteristics of diabetes-associated autoantibodies for type 1 diabetes in the general population are scarce, we assessed the predictive performance of islet cell autoantibodies (ICAs) in combination with autoantibodies against insulin (IAAs), autoantibodies against GAD, and/or islet antigen 2 for type 1 diabetes in children with HLA-defined disease predisposition recruited from the general population.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSWe observed 7,410 children from birth (median 9.2 years) for β-cell autoimmunity and diabetes. If a child developed ICA positivity or diabetes, the three other antibodies were measured in all samples available from that individual. Persistent autoantibody positivity was defined as continued positivity in at least two sequential samples including the last available sample.RESULTSPre-diabetic ICA positivity was observed in 1,173 subjects (15.8%), 155 of whom developed type 1 diabetes. With ICA screening, 86% of 180 progressors (median age at diagnosis 5.0 years) were identified. Positivity for four antibodies was associated with the highest disease sensitivity (54.4%) and negative predictive values (98.3%) and the lowest negative likelihood ratio (0.5). The combination of persistent ICA and IAA positivity resulted in the highest positive predictive value (91.7%), positive likelihood ratio (441.8), cumulative disease risk (100%), and specificity (100%). Young age at seroconversion, high ICA level, multipositivity, and persistent positivity for IAA were significant risk markers for type 1 diabetes.CONCLUSIONSWithin the general population, the combination of HLA and autoantibody screening resulted in disease risks that are likely to be as high as those reported among autoantibody-positive siblings of children with type 1 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE -To study the frequency of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) over a 20-year period among children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes in northern Finland. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS