Population-based estimates of breast cancer risk for carriers of pathogenic variants identified by gene-panel testing are urgently required. Most prior research has been based on women selected for high-risk features and more data is needed to make inference about breast cancer risk for women unselected for family history, an important consideration of population screening. We tested 1464 women diagnosed with breast cancer and 862 age-matched controls participating in the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study (ABCFS), and 6549 healthy, older Australian women enroled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study for rare germline variants using a 24-gene-panel. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age and other potential confounders. We identified pathogenic variants in 11.1% of the ABCFS cases, 3.7% of the ABCFS controls and 2.2% of the ASPREE (control) participants. The estimated breast cancer OR [95% confidence interval] was 5.3 [2.1–16.2] for BRCA1, 4.0 [1.9–9.1] for BRCA2, 3.4 [1.4–8.4] for ATM and 4.3 [1.0–17.0] for PALB2. Our findings provide a population-based perspective to gene-panel testing for breast cancer predisposition and opportunities to improve predictors for identifying women who carry pathogenic variants in breast cancer predisposition genes.

Case-control studies of breast cancer have consistently shown that pathogenic variants in CHEK2 are associated with about a 3-fold increased risk of breast cancer. Information about the recurrent protein-truncating variant CHEK2 c.1100delC dominates this estimate. There have been no formal estimates of age-specific cumulative risk of breast cancer for all CHEK2 pathogenic (including likely pathogenic) variants combined. We conducted a population-based case-control-family study of pathogenic CHEK2 variants (26 families, 1071 relatives) and estimated the age-specific cumulative risk of breast cancer using segregation analysis. The estimated hazard ratio for carriers of pathogenic CHEK2 variants (combined) was 4.9 (95% CI 2.5–9.5) relative to non-carriers. The HR for carriers of the CHEK2 c.1100delC variant was estimated to be 3.5 (95% CI 1.02–11.6) and the HR for carriers of all other CHEK2 variants combined was estimated to be 5.7 (95% CI 2.5–12.9). The age-specific cumulative risk of breast cancer was estimated to be 18% (95% CI 11–30%) and 33% (95% CI 21–48%) to age 60 and 80 years, respectively. These findings provide important information for the clinical management of breast cancer risk for women carrying pathogenic variants in CHEK2.

Background Multigene panel tests for breast cancer predisposition routinely include ATM as it is now a well-established breast cancer predisposition gene. Methods We included ATM in a multigene panel test applied to the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry (ABCFR), a population-based case–control–family study of breast cancer, with the purpose of estimating the prevalence and penetrance of heterozygous ATM pathogenic variants from the family data, using segregation analysis. Results The estimated breast cancer hazard ratio for carriers of pathogenic ATM variants in the ABCFR was 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.45–3.87; P = 0.6). The estimated cumulative risk of breast cancer to age 80 years for heterozygous ATM pathogenic variant carriers was estimated to be 13% (95% CI 4.6–30). Conclusions Although ATM has been definitively identified as a breast cancer predisposition gene, further evidence, such as variant-specific penetrance estimates, are needed to inform risk management strategies for carriers of pathogenic variants to increase the clinical utility of population testing of this gene.