In single-autoAb relatives, the time to multiple-autoAb positivity increases with age and the absence of IAA and genotype. The majority of multiple-autoAb individuals progress to diabetes within 20 years; this occurs more rapidly in the presence of IA-2A or ZnT8A, regardless of age, genotype, and number of autoAbs. These data may help to refine the risk stratification of presymptomatic type 1 diabetes.

SummaryIn first-degree relatives of type 1 diabetic patients, we investigated whether diabetes risk assessment solely based on insulinoma antigen 2 (IA-2) and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8) antibody status (IA-2A, respectively, ZnT8A) is as effective as screening for three or four autoantibodies [antibodies against insulin (IAA), glutamate decarboxylase 65 kDa (GAD) glutamate decarboxylase autoantibodies (GADA) and IA-2A with or without ZnT8A] in identifying children, adolescents and adults who progress rapidly to diabetes (within 5 years). Antibodies were determined by radiobinding assays during follow-up of 6444 siblings and offspring aged 0-39 years at inclusion and recruited consecutively by the Belgian Diabetes Registry. We identified 394 persistently IAA + , GADA + , IA-2A + and/or ZnT8A + relatives (6·1%). After a median follow-up time of 52 months, 132 relatives developed type 1 diabetes. In each age category tested (0-9, 10-19 and 20-39 years) progression to diabetes was significantly quicker in the presence of IA-2A and/or ZnT8A than in their joint absence (P < 0·001). Progression rate was age-independent in IA-2A + and/or ZnT8A + relatives but decreased with age if only GADA and/or IAA were present (P = 0·008). In the age group mainly considered for immune interventions until now (10-39 years), screening for IA-2A and ZnT8A alone identified 78% of the rapid progressors (versus 75% if positive for Ն 2 antibodies among IAA, GADA, IA-2A and ZnT8A or versus 62% without testing for ZnT8A). Screening for IA-2A and ZnT8A alone allows identification of the majority of rapidly progressing prediabetic siblings and offspring regardless of age and is more cost-effective to select participants for intervention trials than conventional screening.

We investigated whether HLA-A*24 typing complements screening for HLA-DQ and for antibodies (Abs) against insulin, GAD, IA-2 (IA-2A), and zinc transporter-8 (ZnT8A) for prediction of rapid progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D). Persistently Ab+ siblings/offspring (n = 288; aged 0–39 years) of T1D patients were genotyped for HLA-DQA1-DQB1 and HLA-A*24 and monitored for development of diabetes within 5 years of first Ab+. HLA-A*24 (P = 0.009), HLA-DQ2/DQ8 (P = 0.001), and positivity for IA-2A ± ZnT8A (P < 0.001) were associated with development of T1D in multivariate analysis. The 5-year risk increased with the number of the above three markers present (n = 0: 6%; n = 1: 18%; n = 2: 46%; n = 3: 100%). Positivity for one or more markers identified a subgroup of 171 (59%) containing 88% of rapid progressors. The combined presence of HLA-A*24 and IA-2A+ ± ZnT8A+ defined a subgroup of 18 (6%) with an 82% diabetes risk. Among IA-2A+ ± ZnT8A+ relatives, identification of HLA-A*24 carriers in addition to HLA-DQ2/DQ8 carriers increased screening sensitivity for relatives at high Ab- and HLA-inferred risk (64% progression; P = 0.002). In conclusion, HLA-A*24 independently predicts rapid progression to T1D in Ab+ relatives and complements IA-2A, ZnT8A, and HLA-DQ2/DQ8 for identifying participants in immunointervention trials.

Clamp-derived first-phase C-peptide release can be used as an efficient and simple screening strategy in persistently autoAb(+) offspring and siblings of T1D patients to predict impending diabetes.