Spatial analog techniques consist in identifying locations whose historical climate is similar to the anticipated future climate at a reference location. In the process of identifying analogs, one key step is the quantification of the dissimilarity between two climates separated in time and space, which involves the choice of a metric. In this study, six a priori suitable metrics are described (the standardized Euclidean distance, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistic, the nearest-neighbor distance, the Zech–Aslan energy statistic, the Friedman–Rafsky runs statistic, and the Kullback–Leibler divergence) and criteria are proposed and investigated in an attempt to identify the best metric for selecting spatial analogs. The case study involves the use of numerical simulations performed with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM, version 4.2.3), from which three annual indicators (total precipitation, heating degree-days, and cooling degree-days) are calculated over 30-yr periods (1971–2000 and 2041–70). It is found that the six metrics identify comparable analog regions at a relatively large scale but that best analogs may differ substantially. For best analogs, it is shown that the uncertainty stemming from the metric choice does not generally exceed that stemming from the simulation or model choice. On the basis of the set of criteria considered in this study, the Zech–Aslan energy statistic stands out as the most recommended metric for analog studies, whereas the Friedman–Rafsky runs statistic is the least recommended.

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Technologies of precision agriculture, digital soil maps, and meteorological stations provide a minimum data set to guide precision farming operations. However, determining optimal nutrient requirements for potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops at subfield scale remains a challenge given specific climatic, edaphic, and managerial conditions. Multilevel modeling can generalize yield response to fertilizer additions using data easily accessible to growers. Our objective was to elaborate a multilevel N fertilizer response model for potato crops using the Mitscherlich equation and a core data set of 93 N fertilizer trials conducted in Québec, Canada. Daily climatic data were collected at 10 × 10 km resolution. Soils were characterized by organic matter content, pH, and texture in the arable layer, and by texture and tools of pedometrics across a gleization-podzolization continuum in subsoil layers. There were five categories of preceding crops and five cultivar maturity orders. The three Mitscherlich parameters (Asymptote, Rate, and Environment) were most often site-specific. Sensitivity analysis showed that optimum N dosage increased with non-leguminous high-residue preceding crops, coarser soils, podzolization, drier climatic condition, and late cultivar maturity. The inferential model could guide site-specific N fertilization using an accessible minimum data set to support fertilization decisions. As decision-support system, the model could also provide a range of optimum N doses across a large spectrum of site-specific conditions including climate change.

In snow-fed catchments, it is crucial to monitor and model the snow water equivalent (SWE), particularly when simulating the melt water runoff. SWE distribution can, however, be highly heterogeneous, particularly in forested environments. Within these locations, scant studies have explored the spatiotemporal variability in SWE in relation with vegetation characteristics, with only few successful attempts. The aim of this paper is to fill this knowledge gap, through a detailed monitoring at nine locations within a 3.49 km 2 forested catchment in southern Québec, Canada (47 N, 71 W). The catchment receives an annual average of 633 mm of solid precipitation and is predominantly covered with balsam fir stands. Extracted from intensive field campaign and high-resolution LiDAR data, this study explores the effect of fine scale forest features (tree height, tree diameter, canopy density, leaf area index [LAI], tree density and gap fraction) on the spatiotemporal variability in the SWE distribution. A nested stratified random sampling design was adopted to quantify small-scale variability across the catchment and 1810 manual snow samples were collected throughout the consecutive winters of 2016-17 and 2017-18. This study explored the variability of SWE using coefficients of variation (CV) and relating to the LAI. We also present existing spatiotemporal differences in maximum snow depth across different stands and its relationship with average tree diameter. Furthermore, exploiting key vegetation characteristics, this paper explores different approaches to model SWE, such as multiple linear regression, binary regression tree and neural networks (NN).We were unable to establish any relationship between the CV of SWE and the LAI.However, we observed an increase in maximum snow depth with decreasing tree diameter, suggesting an association between these variables. NN modelling (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] = 0.71) revealed that, snow depth, snowpack age and forest characteristics (tree diameter and tree density) are key controlling variables on SWE.Using only variables that are deemed to be more readily available (snow depth, tree height, snowpack age and elevation), NN performance falls by only 7% (NSE = 0.66).

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