This article provides a context to, attempts an explanation for, and proposes a response to the recent demonstration of rapid and severe decline of the native mammal fauna of Kakadu National Park. This decline is consistent with, but might be more accentuated than, declines reported elsewhere in northern Australia; however, such a comparison is constrained by the sparse information base across this region. Disconcertingly, the decline has similarities with the earlier phase of mammal extinctions that occurred elsewhere in Australia. We considered four proximate factors (individually or interactively) that might be driving the observed decline: habitat change, predation (by feral cats), poisoning (by invading cane toads), and novel disease. No single factor readily explains the current decline. The current rapid decline of mammals in Kakadu National Park and northern Australia suggests that the fate of biodiversity globally might be even bleaker than evident in recent reviews, and that the establishment of conservation reserves alone is insufficient to maintain biodiversity. This latter conclusion is not new; but the results reported here further stress the need to manage reserves far more intensively, purposefully, and effectively, and to audit regularly their biodiversity conservation performance.

Context. Australia has a lamentable history of mammal extinctions. Until recently, the mammal fauna of northern Australia was presumed to have been spared such loss, and to be relatively intact and stable. However, several recent studies have suggested that this mammal fauna may be undergoing some decline, so a targeted monitoring program was established in northern Australia’s largest and best-resourced conservation reserve. Aims. The present study aims to detect change in the native small-mammal fauna of Kakadu National Park, in the monsoonal tropics of northern Australia, over the period of 1996–2009, through an extensive monitoring program, and to consider factors that may have contributed to any observed change. Methods. The small-mammal fauna was sampled in a consistent manner across a set of plots established to represent the environmental variation and fire regimes of Kakadu. Fifteen plots were sampled three times, 121 plots sampled twice and 39 plots once. Resampling was typically at 5-yearly intervals. Analysis used regression (of abundance against date), and Wilcoxon matched-pairs tests to assess change. For resampled plots, change in abundance of mammals was related to fire frequency in the between-sampling period. Key results. A total of 25 small mammal species was recorded. Plot-level species richness and total abundance decreased significantly, by 54% and 71%, respectively, over the course of the study. The abundance of 10 species declined significantly, whereas no species increased in abundance significantly. The number of ‘empty’ plots increased from 13% in 1996 to 55% in 2009. For 136 plots sampled in 2001–04 and again in 2007–09, species richness declined by 65% and the total number of individuals declined by 75%. Across plots, the extent of decline increased with increasing frequency of fire. The most marked declines were for northern quoll, Dasyurus hallucatus, fawn antechinus, Antechinus bellus, northern brown bandicoot, Isoodon macrourus, common brushtail possum, Trichosurus vulpecula, and pale field-rat, Rattus tunneyi. Conclusions. The native mammal fauna of Kakadu National Park is in rapid and severe decline. The cause(s) of this decline are not entirely clear, and may vary among species. The most plausible causes are too frequent fire, predation by feral cats and invasion by cane toads (affecting particularly one native mammal species). Implications. The present study has demonstrated a major decline in a key conservation reserve, suggesting that the mammal fauna of northern Australia may now be undergoing a decline comparable to the losses previously occurring elsewhere in Australia. These results suggest that there is a major and urgent conservation imperative to more precisely identify, and more effectively manage, the threats to this mammal fauna.

Summary1. The indicator qualities of terrestrial invertebrates are widely recognized in the context of detecting ecological change associated with human land-use. However, the use of terrestrial invertebrates as bioindicators remains more a topic of scientific discourse than a part of land-management practice, largely because their inordinate numbers, taxonomic challenges and general unfamiliarity make invertebrates too intimidating for most land-management agencies. Terrestrial invertebrates will not be widely adopted as bioindicators in land management until simple and efficient protocols have been developed that meet the needs of land managers. 2. In Australia, ants are one group of terrestrial insects that has been commonly adopted as bioindicators in land management, and this study examined the reliability of a simplified ant assessment protocol designed to be within the capacity of a wide range of land managers. 3. Ants had previously been surveyed intensively as part of a comprehensive assessment of biodiversity responses to SO 2 emissions from a large copper and lead smelter at Mt Isa in the Australian semi-arid tropics. This intensive ant survey yielded 174 species from 24 genera, and revealed seven key patterns of ant community structure and composition in relation to habitat and SO 2 levels. 4. We tested the extent to which a greatly simplified ant assessment was able to reproduce these results. Our simplified assessment was based on ant 'bycatch' from bucket-sized (20-litre) pitfall traps used to sample vertebrates as part of the broader biodiversity survey. We also greatly simplified the sorting of ant morphospecies by considering only large (using a threshold of 4 mm) species, and we reduced sorting time by considering only the presence or absence of species at each site. In this manner, the inclusion of ants in the assessment process required less than 10% of the effort demanded by the intensive ant survey. 5. Our simplified protocol reproduced virtually all the key findings of the intensive survey. This puts effective ant monitoring within the capacity of a wide range of land managers.

Mark-recapture studies of northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) were conducted in lowland savanna in Kakadu National Park during two periods: in 1985-87 when total mammal abundance was high, and in 1989-91 when total mammal abundance was low. Population characteristics from these studies are compared with results from a 1977-79 study in sandstone escarpment country 40 km to the south-east and from studies in a range of habitats on the Mitchell Plateau in the Kimberley. Populations in rocky country are most dense with animals often surviving two or three years. In contrast, populations in savanna are more sparse, with males and females rarely surviving beyond one mating season. While all populations seem to undergo an annual period of stress, it is the savanna populations that seem most vulnerable. An analysis of the distribution of northern quolls shows a 75% recent range reduction, from being widespread over much of northern Australia to six smaller rocky regions. Possible causes of the decline include cattle, cane toads and exotic disease.

International audienceThe seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter productivity measurements), their associated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonality in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rainfall is < 2000 mm yr(-1) (water-limited forests) and to radiation otherwise (light-limited forests). On the other hand, independent of climate limitations, wood productivity and litterfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosynthetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest productivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in current light-limited forest with future rainfall < 2000 mm yr(-1)