Background/Aim The ABC score is a new pre-endoscopic scoring system that was recently developed to accurately predict one-month mortality in upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). We aim to validate this new score on a cohort of Lebanese patients treated in a tertiary care center and to compare it to currently existing scores. Methods Adult patients admitted to the American University of Beirut Medical Center (AUBMC) with overt GIB between January 2013 and August 2020 were included. The area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of the ABC score in predicting 30-day mortality was calculated using the SPSS software. Other optimal existing scores for predicting mortality (the Oakland score for lower GIB, the AIMS-65 and the Rockall scores for upper GIB)s were also assessed and compared to the ABC score. Results A total of 310 patients were included in our study. For upper GIB, the ABC score showed good performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUROC: 0.79), outperforming both the AIMS-65 score (AUROC 0.67, p < 0.001) and the Rockall score (AUROC: 0.62, p < 0.001). For lower GIB, the ABC score also had good performance which was comparable to the Oakland score (AUROC: 0.70 vs 0.56, p = 0.26). Conclusion In our cohort of patients, the ABC score demonstrated good performance in predicting 30-day mortality for patients with upper and lower GIB compared to other established risk scores, which may help guide management decisions. This simple and novel score provides valuable prognostic information for patients presenting with GIB and appears to be reproducible in different patient populations.

Goals and Background: We aimed to develop a novel 1-year mortality risk-scoring system that includes use of antithrombotic (AT) drugs and to validate it against other scoring systems in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). Study: We developed a risk-scoring system from prospectively collected data on patients admitted with GIB between January 2013 and August 2020, who had at least 1- year of follow-up. Independent predictors of 1-year mortality were determined after adjusting for the following confounders: the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (divided into 4 groups: CCI-0=0, CCI-1=1 to 3, CCI-2=4 to 6, CCI-3 ≥7), need for blood transfusion, GIB severity, need for endoscopic therapy, and type of AT. The risk score was based on independent predictors. Results: Five hundred seventy-six patients were included and 123 (21%) died at 1-year follow-up. Our risk -score was based on the following: CCI-2 (2 points), CCI-3 (4 points), need for blood transfusion (1 point), and no use of aspirin (1 point), as aspirin use was protective (maximum score=6). Patients with higher risk scores had higher mortality. The model had a better predictive accuracy [AUC=0.82, 95% confidence interval (0.78-0.86), P<0.0001] than the Rockall score for upper GIB (Area Under the Curve (AUC)=0.68, P<<0.0001), the Oakland score for lower GIB (AUC=0.69, p=0.004), or the Shock Index for all (AUC=0.54, P<0.0001). Conclusion: A simple and novel score that includes use of AT upon admission accurately predicts 1-year mortality in patients with GIB. This scoring system may help guide follow-up decisions and inform the prognosis of patients with GIB.