We review the history of Bayesian chronological modeling in archaeology and demonstrate that there has been a surge over the past several years in American archaeological applications. Most of these applications have been performed by archaeologists that are self-taught in this method because formal training opportunities in Bayesian chronological modeling are infrequently provided. We define and address misconceptions about Bayesian chronological modeling that we have encountered in conversations with colleagues and in anonymous reviews, some of which has been expressed in the published literature. Objectivity and scientific rigor is inherent in the Bayesian chronological modeling process. Each stage of this process is described in detail and we present examples of this process in practice. Our concluding discussion focuses on the potential Bayesian chronological modeling has for enhancing understandings of important topics. 3 SPANISH ABSTRACTEn este artículo se revisará la historia de la modelización cronológica Bayesiana en arqueología y se mostrará cómo la arqueología americana ha experimentado en los últimos años un auge en su aplicación. La mayor parte de los análisis han sido desarrollados por arqueólogos que han sido autodidactas en el aprendizaje del método, ya que las oportunidades de formación en el análisis Bayesiano son muy limitadas. Se explicarán cuáles son los errores más comunes en la aplicación de la modelización cronológica Bayesiana con los que nos hemos encontrado al conversar con compañeros, así como en revisiones anónimas, algunas de los cuales ya han sido señaladas en otros trabajos. La objetividad y el rigor científico resultan inherentes al proceso de modelización cronológica Bayesiana. Se describirá en detalle cada etapa de este proceso, presentando ejemplos de su puesta en práctica. Nuestra conclusión se centrará en torno al potencial de este método para mejorar nuestra comprensión sobre temas de gran relevancia.

Bayesian chronological modeling is used to investigate the chronology of bastioned palisades during the precolumbian period in the Midwestern and Southeastern United States. Nine precolumbian settlements in the Midwest and Southeast with bastioned palisades have been subject to scientific dating (Angel Mounds, Annis Village, Aztalan, Cahokia Mounds, Etowah, Kincaid Mounds, Jonathan Creek, Moundville, and Southwind). Complete radiocarbon datasets from these sites are presented within an interpretative Bayesian statistical framework. The results provide a glimpse into the history of Mississippi period (A.D. 1000–1700) fortifications with bastions and indicate that the analyzed fortifications were built and maintained predominantly in A.D. 1200–1400. This finding suggests a greater institutionalized role for defense and warfare in post-A.D. 1200 Mississippian societies. Additionally, modeling results further indicate that the investigated Mississippian centers continued to maintain fortifications for generations after their construction.

Bayesian chronological modeling is used to investigate the chronology for a large-scale human depopulation event during the Mississippi period (A.D. 1000-1700) known as the Vacant Quarter phenomenon. The Middle Cumberland Region (MCR) of Tennessee is within the Vacant Quarter area and six villages from the final phase of Mississippian activity in the MCR have been subjected to radiocarbon dating. Complete radiocarbon datasets from these sites are presented within an interpretative Bayesian statistical framework. The results provide a unique history of each settlement and demonstrate that Mississippian occupations at each site likely terminated in the mid-to-late fifteenth-and possibly early sixteenth-centuries A.D., which is 50-100 years later than the most recent estimate for the timing of the Vacant Quarter. Mississippian abandonment in the MCR was relatively quick, likely occurring over less than a century. The exact reasons for abandonment are not entirely clear but appear to be linked to climate change. A radiocarbon simulation experiment indicates that future robust radiocarbon dating with well selected samples could greatly improve the chronological precision for this late Mississippian activity. More broadly, this demonstrates that model-building with radiocarbon simulations can be used to address regional scale chronological issues within the American Southeast and beyond. Supplemental Materials. Appendices A-E are accessible as supplemental materials linked to the online version of the paper, which is accessible via the SAA member login at www.saa.org/members-login. Appendix A. Radiocarbon data. Appendix B. Description of Bayesian models and results. Appendix C. Description of alternative Bayesian models and results. Appendix D. Description of simulation experiments and results Appendix E. Code for OxCal models. Primary model (68.2% probability)

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